[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081715
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Nov 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly transitioned Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 27.8N
72.7W at 08/1500 UTC or 300 nm NE of the Northwestern Bahamas
moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 27N to 30N between
71W and 76W. Seas are peaking near 23 ft with the 12 ft seas
extending 480 nm in the NE quadrant, 390 nm in the NW quadrant,
330 nm in the SE quadrant, and 240 nm in the SW quadrant. Nicole
is expected to move in a west-northwest motion by Wednesday
night, followed by a turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest on Thursday and Thursday night.  On the forecast
track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern
Bahamas today and tonight, move near or over those islands on
Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida within the
hurricane warning area Wednesday night. Nicole's center is then
expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern
Georgia Thursday and Thursday night. Strengthening is expected
during the next 36 to 48 hours, and Nicole is forecast to be near
or at hurricane strength by Wednesday and Wednesday night while it
is moving near the northwestern Bahamas and approaching the east
coast of Florida. Dangerous storm surge, rough surf, and heavy
rainfall is expected as the storm approaches Florida. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well
as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 56W, from 18N
southward, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N
between 54W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 08N18W to 06N38W to 07N53W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N
to 11N and E of 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more on Tropical
Storm Nicole.

A surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche. Scattered
moderate showers are in the vicinity of the trough. Fresh to
locally strong winds are noted over the far eastern Gulf. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except for the far SW Gulf
where gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range east of
90W, and 2-4 ft west of 90W.

For the forecast, Nicole has transitioned to a tropical storm
this morning. Tropical Storm Nicole is near 27.8N 72.7W with 994
mb at 10 AM EST moving W at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Nicole will move to 27.3N 74.1W this
evening, 26.8N 76.0W Wed morning, then strengthen to a hurricane
near 27.0N 78.3W Wed evening. Hurricane Nicole will move inland
and weaken to a tropical storm near 28.1N 80.9W Thu morning, then
be near 30.0N 83.1W Thu evening. Tropical Storm Nicole will be
near 32.7N 82.5W Fri morning. Nicole will become extratropical as
it moves through the northeast U.S. early Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Nicole north of the area is creating a loose
pressure gradient across the Caribbean waters. The weak gradient
is supporting mainly light to gentle winds across the central
Caribbean, reaching moderate speeds over the far eastern and NW
waters. Seas are up to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 1-3 ft
elsewhere. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted in the east-central Caribbean from 11N to 17N between 65W
and 73W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW
Caribbean S of 12N between 75W and 82W.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds with slight to
moderate seas will persist into the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on
Tropical Storm Nicole, which is impacting much of the waters
west of 60W.

The pressure gradient between TS Nicole and strong high pressure
to the north of the area is bringing strong to near gale-force
winds off most of the Florida coast. Buoy 41009, about 20 nm
east of Cape Canaveral, Florida, confirms 12 ft seas off the
central Florida coast.

East of TS Nicole, high pressure extends across the central and
eastern Atlantic. A trough extends from 21N42W to 31N38W with
gentle to moderate winds near it and no significant convection.
Light to gentle winds prevails N of 20W and E of 55W. Gentle to
moderate winds are S of 20N. Seas 5-6 ft are noted across the
central and eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, Nicole transitioned to a tropical
storm this morning. Tropical Storm Nicole is near 27.8N 72.7W
with 994 mb at 10 AM EST moving W at 8 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Nicole will move to 27.3N
74.1W this evening, 26.8N 76.0W Wed morning, then strengthen to
a hurricane near 27.0N 78.3W Wed evening. Hurricane Nicole will
move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 28.1N 80.9W Thu
morning, then be near 30.0N 83.1W Thu evening. Tropical Storm
Nicole will be near 32.7N 82.5W Fri morning. Nicole will become
extratropical as it moves through the northeast U.S. early Sat.

$$
AReinhart
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