[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 6
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL172022
1023 AM EST Tue Nov 8 2022 /923 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

** NICOLE MAKES THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM AND IS FORECAST TO
 BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LANDFALL ALONG THE
 FLORIDA EAST COAST **

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Dixie, Coastal
      Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, and Coastal Wakulla

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 720 miles east-southeast of Tallahassee
    - 27.8N 72.7W
    - Storm Intensity 50 mph
    - Movement West or 280 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Nicole has made its transition from a subtropical to tropical storm as
it is moving west to southwest towards the Bahamas. Some strengthening
is forecast through landfall and Nicole could be a hurricane as it
reaches the Florida east coast early Thursday morning. Nicole will
then cross the Peninsula and eventually begin to bring impacts to the
tri-state area Thursday and early Friday. While tropical storm force
winds will likely not arrive until Thursday across the area, the large
size of Nicole will still bring wind gusts to near tropical storm force
on Wednesday and breezy conditions are expected this afternoon as
well.

Tropical storm watches remain in effect for our northeast Gulf waters
east of Apalachicola. For areas along the coastline, a tropical storm
watch is in effect for locations east of the Ochlockonee River.

The main concerns with Nicole will be the windy conditions, especially
on Thursday and Thursday night when tropical storm force winds will
most likely arrive. Additionally, heavy rainfall will also be a
concern, especially across the southeast Florida Big Bend. While a
lack of recent rainfall will allow soils to absorb some of the heavy
rain, high rainfall rates with this system will allow the potential for
localized flash flooding.

While storm surge concerns remain low due to the current forecast
track of Nicole, future westward shifts in the track could allow for a
period of onshore flow and the potential for storm surge across the
eastern and northern portions of the Apalachee Bay. While we are not
advertising any storm surge threat yet, folks should continue to
closely monitor the forecast for any changes.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
the Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia. Potential impacts in this
area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across across the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited
impacts across eastern Florida Panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Potential impacts
include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become swollen and
      overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets
for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 4 PM EST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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