[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Subtropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL172022
1019 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

This product covers South Florida

**PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge
      Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for
      Coastal Palm Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Coastal Broward,
      Inland Broward, Inland Palm Beach, Metro Broward, and Metro
      Palm Beach

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Palm Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Warning, Storm Surge Watch, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Broward
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Inland Broward, Inland Palm Beach, Metro Broward, and Metro
      Palm Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Miami-Dade,
      Glades, Hendry, and Metro Miami-Dade

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 550 miles east of West Palm Beach FL or about 570 miles
      east of Miami FL
    - 27.0N 71.1W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Subtropical Storm Nicole is currently east of the Bahamas in the
southwest Atlantic and forecast to continue northwest through the night.
Then, strengthening high pressure across the eastern US will force
Nicole to turn west/southwest towards the eastern Florida coast. Nicole
is forecast to strengthen to a Hurricane as it crosses the Gulf Stream on
Wednesday.

While the finer details of the track and intensity could still fluctuate a
bit, the potential impacts from this system remain unchanged at this time.
Keeping in mind the magnitude of impacts may vary a bit with even small
changes to Nicole's forecast, the main hazards of concern are:

* Wind - Based on the current forecast for Nicole, Tropical Storm
force winds could begin as early as Wednesday morning, across the
southeast coast of Florida. Along the immediate coast, hurricane force
winds are a reasonable worse case scenario mainly across portions of
coastal Palm Beach and Broward counties, and tropical storm force
winds elsewhere.

* Coastal Flooding/Surge - Higher than usual tides due to the moon
phase and antecedent moderate northeasterly flow will become further
aggravated as Nicole moves towards the east coast of Florida. Tidal
gauges are forecast to climb into moderate to major flood stage during
periods of high tide Tuesday through Thursday with the peak on
Wednesday. Peak inundation values of concern along the immediate coast
are forecast to range from 3 to 5 feet across northern Palm Beach,
2 to 4 feet south to Hallandale Beach, and 1 to 3 feet across
Miami-Dade. Large breaking/life threatening waves are expected along
the east coast with the worst conditions expected along Palm Beach.

* Rainfall - The majority of the rainfall associated with the system
is forecast to fall Wednesday through Thursday. Waves of moderate to
heavy rain could cause localized flooding. The greatest risk for flash
flooding will be near the coast should bands of heavy rain fall when
tides are at their peak. Over the two day period, widespread average
rain amounts of 2-4" with localized amounts in excess of 6 inches are
the main concern across the southeast coast of Florida, and should be
highest from Palm Beach county northward.

* Tornadoes - A low-end tornado threat is currently forecast Wednesday
into Thursday as banding from the system moves ashore along the
Florida east coast. The greatest potential for tornadoes will be along
Palm Beach and Glades counties northward.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across coastal Palm Beach and Broward counties. Potential impacts
in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the remainder of south Florida, especially
northeast of a line from Naples to Biscayne Bay.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the Palm Beach and Broward coasts. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across Miami-Dade and Collier counties.


* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across Palm Beach and coastal Broward counties.
Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Ditches and canals may quickly become swollen with swift
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the remainder of south Florida.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Palm Beach and Glades counties. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile
      homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and
      branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving
      vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 4 AM EST, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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