[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

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Subtropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 3
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL172022
418 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**NICOLE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Eastern Clay, Eastern
      Putnam, Inland St. Johns, South Central Duval, and Trout River

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Eastern Clay, Eastern
      Putnam, Inland St. Johns, South Central Duval, and Trout River
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Camden, Coastal Duval, Coastal Flagler, Coastal Glynn,
      Coastal Nassau, and Coastal St. Johns
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Inland Flagler

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 710 miles east-southeast of Jacksonville FL or about 720
      miles east-southeast of Brunswick GA
    - 26.6N 70.6W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Subtropical Storm Nicole is expected to bring widespread impacts
with prolonged coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy
rainfall, rough surf, and rip currents.

Nicole is expected to reach Hurricane strength as it crosses through
the Bahamas and on towards the south central Florida peninsula. The
current track has Nicole moving across central Florida, briefly into
the Gulf of Mexico, and then turning north and moving over northern
Florida before racing to the northeast on Friday into the weekend.

Localized flash flooding risk on Thursday and Friday, mainly impacting
coastal areas and along the St Johns River.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal northeast Florida and southeast Georgia and
the St Johns River down to Palatka. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the St. Johns south of Palatka.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across coastal northeast Florida and the St. Johns
River basin. Potential impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across coastal
northeast Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 1030 PM EST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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