[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Subtropical Storm Nicole Local Statement Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL172022
1041 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

This product covers East Central Florida

**SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch have been issued for
      Coastal Indian River, Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie,
      Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, and Southern Brevard Barrier
      Islands
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch have been issued
      for Coastal Volusia
    - A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Inland Indian River,
      Inland Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland Saint Lucie,
      Inland Southern Brevard, Mainland Northern Brevard, and
      Mainland Southern Brevard
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Inland Volusia,
      Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and
      Southern Lake

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Indian River, Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie,
      Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, and Southern Brevard Barrier
      Islands
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Volusia
    - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Inland Indian River, Inland
      Martin, Inland Northern Brevard, Inland Saint Lucie, Inland
      Southern Brevard, Mainland Northern Brevard, and Mainland
      Southern Brevard
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Inland Volusia,
      Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and
      Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 690 miles east of Cape Canaveral FL or about 660 miles
      east of Stuart FL
    - 26.3N 69.6W
    - Storm Intensity 45 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 320 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Subtropical Storm Nicole will drift westward on Tuesday before
taking a turn west-southwestward Tuesday night into Wednesday, moving
toward the northern Bahamas. Nicole is expected to approach the
eastern Florida Peninsula, potentially near or at hurricane strength,
Wednesday into Wednesday night and will produce significant impacts
across east central Florida. Preparations should begin now for at
least strong tropical storm conditions by mid-week.

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Brevard, Indian River, Saint
Lucie and Martin counties, as well as the adjacent Atlantic waters of
Brevard County and the Treasure Coast. A Tropical Storm Watch is now
in effect for the rest of east central Florida, including the Volusia
County Atlantic waters. Additionally, a Storm Surge Watch is now in
effect for the entire east central Florida coast, for the potential of
3 to 5 feet of surge waters above ground level.

Conditions will begin to deteriorate as early as tonight due to the
nature of the storm and the large wind field associated with the
system. Use today to complete preparations, as winds will increase
tomorrow, with increasing shower chances as cells begin to move
onshore. As the center of Nicole nears the east coast of Florida,
tropical storm force winds will begin to overspread the region, with
hurricane conditions possible near and to the north of where the
center makes landfall.

Boating and beach conditions will become increasingly dangerous for a
prolonged period. Strong, gusty northeast winds will produce very high
seas, rough, pounding surf, large breaking waves and numerous life
threatening rip currents. These winds and high seas and surf will
combine with upcoming high astronomical tides to bring the threat of
significant storm surge and major beach erosion around the times of
the next several high tide cycles from Tuesday through Thursday.

To reiterate, conditions over the open Atlantic and in the surf zone
will be extremely dangerous! Entering the water is strongly
discouraged and small craft operators should consider staying in port
until conditions start to improve late this week or the weekend.

Increasing coverage of showers and squalls is also expected from this
storm. Squalls could produce wind gusts in excess of 50 mph,
especially offshore and over coastal counties. Repeated rounds of
heavy showers could produce rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches over the
coastal counties, with 2 to 3 inches forecast farther inland. Locally
higher amounts up to 6 inches are possible, especially along the coast
closer to where the system makes landfall. This may cause flooding and
ponding of water in poorly drained urban areas, especially where the
water table remains high. This could also cause additional flooding
and standing water concerns over the Saint Johns River Basin.

A threat for tornadoes will likely develop into Wednesday and
Wednesday night as the center nears the east coast of Florida.

Don't let the fact that the calendar says November or hurricane season
fatigue allow you to become complacent about preparing for this storm.
Make sure your hurricane supply kit is stocked, and you have a plan in
place, especially if you live along the coast or in an area that is
either prone to flooding or has recently experienced flooding.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the entire east central Florida coast. Potential impacts
in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across Brevard County and the Treasure Coast. Potential impacts in this
area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across Volusia County and the interior counties
of east central Florida.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across Brevard County and the Treasure Coast. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
East Central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 6 PM, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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