[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070947
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Nov 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently developed Subtropical Storm Nicole is centered near
25.5N 68.5W at 07/0900 UTC or 480 nm E of the Northwestern Bahamas
moving NNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
Seas are peaking near 15 ft. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 20N to 31N between 55W and 70W. The
system should turn northwestward and slow down later today,
followed by a turn toward the west and west-southwest tonight
through Tuesday night. Nicole is expected to make a sharp
recurvature toward the north and northeast on days 4 and 5 in the
vicinity of Florida. Some gradual strengthening is anticipated
over the next few days. Nicole is forecast to acquire tropical
characteristics in a couple of days. The current forecast brings
Nicole close to hurricane strength in 60-72 hours while it moves
near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the east coast of
Florida. Nicole is forecast to be a large storm, and regardless
of its exact path, widespread impacts from a prolonged period of
coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall,
rough surf and rip currents, and beach erosion are likely along
much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east
coast, and portions of the northwestern and central Bahamas during
much of the upcoming week. Nicole could be at or near hurricane
strength when it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and the east
coast of Florida Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the potential
for a dangerous storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall to
a portion of those areas. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well as the High
Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Elsewhere, a well-defined area of low pressure located about 650
miles east of Bermuda continues to produce gale-force winds, but
the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is displaced to
the east of the low's center due to strong upper-level winds.
Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for
development while the system moves northward and then
northeastward at about 10 mph, but a short-lived tropical storm
could still form later today or on Tuesday before the low
dissipates and merges with a cold front. There is a medium chance
for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone. Please refer
to the High Seas Forecast issued by OPC at
www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 50W, from 17N
southward, moving westward around 10 to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N
between 40W and 55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N15W to
09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 09N47W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N
between 16W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the eastern Gulf with a high
pressure ridge extending across the western Gulf. Moderate to
locally fresh winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Seas are in
the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten between high
pressure building southward over the area and Subtropical Storm
Nicole that will approach Florida from the Bahamas through mid
week. This pattern will result in increasing winds and building
seas over the eastern Gulf. Nicole is forecast to enter the far
NE Gulf of Mexico late Wed night before lifting back over
Florida on Friday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

With newly developed subtropical Storm Nicole over the SW North
Atlantic waters, broad low pressure prevails north of the area.
This is resulting in a loose pressure gradient across the
Caribbean waters. The weak gradient is supporting mainly light to
gentle winds across thr Caribbean, reaching moderate speeds over
the far eastern waters. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the
central and eastern Caribbean with 1-3 ft seas over the western
Caribbean.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds, locally moderate, with
slight to moderate seas will persist through the middle of the
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on
recently developed Subtropical Storm Nicole, which is impacting
much of the waters west of 60W. In addition, please see the
SPECIAL FEATURES section for more on an area of low pressure near
31N54W.

Elsewhere, another area of low pressure is centered near 31N36W.
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-9 ft prevail north of 20N
and east of 60W. South of 20N, moderate to fresh winds and seas of
5-8 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Subtropical Storm Nicole near 25.5N
68.5W 1004 mb at 4 AM EST moving NNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained
winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. The system is forecast to develop more
tropical characteristics by Tue night. Nicole will gradually
intensify as the system moves to 26.3N 69.3W this afternoon, 27.5N
70.5W Tue morning, 28.2N 72.3W Tue afternoon, 27.6N 74.9W Wed
morning, 26.8N 77.3W Wed afternoon, and 27.0N 79.5W Thu morning,
then to 29.2N 83.3W early Fri.

$$
AL
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