[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Nov 07 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS...

Gale-force winds are from 23N to 27N between 62W and 65W.
Elsewhere from 21N to 31N between 58W and 70W SE winds from 20
knots to 30 knots, and sea heights that range from 10 feet to 15
feet. The 24-hour forecast is for the feature to be a possible
tropical cyclone, near 26N71W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 14N in the Caribbean Sea
northward into the Atlantic Ocean between 55W and 75W. This
system is forecast to move generally northwestward into the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The environmental conditions appear
to be conducive for additional development. It is likely for a
subtropical or tropical storm to form in the next day or so. The
system then is forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward
in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean by the middle part of this
week where more development is possible. Expect an increasing
risk of coastal flooding, tropical storm-force winds, heavy
rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
parts of the central and northwestern Bahamas, during the early
to middle part of this week. Anyone who has interests in those
areas should monitor the progress of this system. It is possible
that tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches may be
required for a part of these areas by early Monday.
The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next
48 hours is high. More information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, and in bulletins/forecasts from your
local weather office.

...DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A well-defined area of low pressure, that is several hundred
miles to the east of Bermuda, continues to produce gale-force
winds and an area of showers and thunderstorms that is displaced
to the east of the center. It is possible that a tropical storm
may form during the next couple of days, while the system drifts
slowly through tomorrow, and then moves northeastward in the
central Atlantic Ocean, if rainshower activity re-develops
closer to the center. The system is forecast to merge with a
strong cold front by the middle part of this week. More
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours is high.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can
be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC,
and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W, from 17N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 08N to 13N
between 44W and 56W. within 210 nm to the east of the tropical
wave, and within 600 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W, to
07N20W 08N40W 09N46W 09N55W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ from 44W eastward, and within 240 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 44W eastward. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 14N southward
between 44W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The remnants of Lisa are a 1011 mb low pressure center that is
near 22N96W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from
90W westward. Fresh SE winds are from 80 nm to 190 nm to the
northeast of the 1011 mb low pressure center. Moderate or slower
SE winds are in the rest of the area that is from 90W westward.
Isolated moderate is from 24N southward from 93W westward.

A surface trough extends from Jamaica, through the Yucatan
Channel, to 27N87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate easterly
winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are
from 90W eastward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 93W
eastward.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 90W westward, to the south of the line that runs
from SE Louisiana to the lower Texas Gulf coast.

The pressure gradient will tighten between high pressure
building southward over the area and broad low pressure that
will approach Florida from the Bahamas through mid week. This
pattern will result in increasing winds and building seas Mon
through Thu over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a
1005 mb low pressure center that is near 17N69W.

A broad upper level trough extends from the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea beyond Hispaniola, into the Atlantic Ocean. Broad
upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea.

Mostly moderate southerly winds are between 60W and 70W, on the
SE side around the developing 1005 mb low pressure center. Some
fresh to strong southerly winds are from 16N northward between
60W and 65W. The sea heights range from 10 feet to 12 feet from
18N to 20N between 60W and 62W. The sea heights range mostly
from 3 feet to 5 feet from 18N southward between 60W and 70W.

A surface trough extends from Jamaica, through the Yucatan
Channel, to 27N87W in the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 17N northward from
the Windward Passage westward. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
are from the surface trough northward between the Windward
Passage and 82W. Moderate NE winds are from 85W westward from
18N southward, toward the Gulf of Honduras.
The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet from 80W westward.

A surface trough extends from the western sections of the
Dominican Republic, southwestward, to 11N79W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 80 nm to
the south and to the southeast of the surface trough closer to
79W, and within 240 nm to the southeast of the trough closer to
68W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet between 70W and
80W. Moderate SW and S winds are between the surface trough and
South America between 72W and 80W.

Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that
ended at 07/0000 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN, are: 1.05 in Guadeloupe.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from the coast of Colombia
near 75W/76W westward, through Panama/Costa Rica westward, into
the Tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 15N southward, from the Dominican
Republic-to-11N79W surface trough westward.

Broad low pressure well north of Puerto Rico is supporting
strong to near-gale force winds over Atlantic waters east of the
northern Leewards Islands along with rough seas. The winds will
diminish through tonight, however large swell will persist in
this area into Tue. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with
slight to moderate seas will persist through the early and
middle portions of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
gale-force winds and a developing 1005 mb low pressure center,
in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. A second developing system
is a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 31.5N53W.

Large-scale upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 14N northward from 44W eastward. A 1018 mb low
pressure center is near 31N36W. The 1012 mb low pressure center
is near 31.5N53W.

The sea heights range from 8 feet to 14 feet, to the north of
the line 31N10W 22N20W 12N40W 09N52W 13N60W, and from 20N
northward from 60W westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet
to 6 feet elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh
winds cover much of the area that is from 70W westward, and from
10N to 25N between 33W and 57W, and within 180 nm of the coast
of Africa from 23N northward. Moderate wind speeds or slower are
in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean, away from the developing
1005 mb low pressure center that is in the SPECIAL FEATURES
section.

Large NE to E swell will prevail across the entire area tonight.
Low pressure located more than 300 miles north of Puerto Rico is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move generally
northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic where the
environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a subtropical or tropical storm is likely to
form in the next day or so. The system is then forecast to turn
westward or west- southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic
by the middle part of this week where additional development is
possible. A tight pressure gradient between the low and strong
high pressure farther north will lead to a broad area of strong
to near-gale force SE winds east of the low, possibly reaching
minimal gale force with rough seas north of the Leeward Islands
and east of the central Bahamas tonight. Strong to gale force
winds and very rough seas will impact waters off northeast
Florida from late Mon through mid week as the low pressure
shifts northwestward into a strong ridge centered north of the
area.

$$
mt/al
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