[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Nov 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwestern Atlantic Low Pressure with Gale Warning...
A broad low pressure is developing about 130 nm north of Puerto
Rico. Aided by a pronounced upper-level trough near 70W,
widespread showers and thunderstorms are occurring north of 20N
between 55W and 72W, including southeast Bahamas. Inside this
area, fresh to strong ENE winds with 9 to 11 ft seas are found
north of the low; and fresh to strong with locally near-gale ESE
to S winds with 10 to 14 ft seas are seen east of the low. These
winds are expected to become near-gale to gale force east of the
low later this afternoon and this evening.

This system is forecast to move northward or northwestward
further into the southwestern Atlantic today, then turn westward
or west-southwestward early this week. Environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for additional development and it is
likely to become a subtropical or tropical depression early this
week. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of
coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf,
and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States
coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and
northwestern Bahamas during the early to middle part of this week.
Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

Central Subtropical Atlantic Low Pressure with Gale Warning...
A well-defined low pressure located 600 nm east of Bermuda is
associated with an area of showers and thunderstorms. This
activity has been attempting to redevelop closer to the center,
and if these trends continue, a short-lived tropical depression or
storm is likely to form later today while the system drifts
slowly over the central Atlantic. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast issued by OPC at
www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 17N southward,
and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 08N to 11N between 44W and 47W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast near
the Guinea-Sierra Leone border to 08N20W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen near and up to 200 nm south of the trough. An
ITCZ continues from 08N20W across 07N30W to 09N44W, then
northwestward from 09N47W through 10N53W to just east of Barbados.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted up to
100 nm north, and 160 nm south of both ITCZ segments.

The eastern end of East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and thunderstorms over Panama and northwestern
Colombia, and adjacent Caribbean waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Convergent southerly winds southeast of the remnants of former
Tropical Depression Lisa are generating isolated thunderstorms at
the central Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge extends southwestward
from the southeast U.S. to north of Tampico, Mexico. This feature
is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds across much of the
Gulf. Seas range from 3 to 5 ft at the central and eastern Bay of
Campeche, and 1 to 3 ft for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient is expected to tighten
between high pressure building southward over the area and broad
low pressure that will approach Florida from the Bahamas starting
late today. This pattern will result in increasing winds and
building seas Mon through Thu over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface to mid-level trough runs northward from near the ABC
Islands to beyond the Mona Passage. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found across the east-central basin, including
the Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the basin. Moderate to fresh with locally
strong S to SW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the
eastern and south-central basin. Gentle to moderate monsoonal
winds and 2 to 3 ft seas exist at the southwestern basin. Gentle
NE to ENE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the remainder of
the basin.

For the forecast, favorable conditions aloft support the
development of broad low pressure east of the central Bahamas
today. This pattern will support strong to near-gale force winds
over the Atlantic waters near the Leeward Islands with rough seas.
These conditions will improve through the early part of the week.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas
will persist through the early and middle portions of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about gale warnings and
potential sub-tropical/tropical development in the Atlantic.

Convergent southerly winds south of a 1020 mb low near 32N36W are
producing scattered moderate convection north of 28N between 34W
and 37W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside
the influence from the broad low mentioned in the Special
Features section, moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10
ft in northerly swell are present from the Bahamas northward to
beyond 31N between 72W and the Georgia-Florida coast. The 1026 mb
Azores High is sustaining gentle to moderate NE to E trades and
seas at 7 to 11 ft in northerly swell north of 20N between the
African coast and 55W. To the south, gentle to moderate with
locally fresh NE trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident from 09N
to 20N between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles.
Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly winds with 3 to 6 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, large NE swell will prevail across the
entire area today. A broad low pressure has formed east of the
Bahamas. Conditions are favorable for a subtropical or tropical
depression to form during the early part of the week while the
system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic. A tight pressure gradient between the low
and strong high pressure farther north will lead to a broad area
of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the low, possibly
reaching minimal gale force with rough seas north of the Leeward
Islands and east of the central Bahamas late today and tonight.
Strong to gale force winds and very rough seas are possible off
northeast Florida from late Mon through mid week as the low
pressure shifts northwestward into a strong ridge centered north
of the area.

$$

Chan
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