[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning:
A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The trough is forecast to move northward over the southwestern
Atlantic by Sunday, where a broad area of low pressure is expected
to form north of Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for gradual development, and a subtropical or
tropical depression could form during the early part of next week
while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward
over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there
is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy
rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early
to middle part of next week. The disturbance is also expected to
bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
this weekend. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress
of this system. This system also has a medium chance of
development over the next 48 hours and the next 5 days. Please
refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 17N southward,
and moving W around 15 kt. See the monsoon trough/ITCZ portion for
information on convection.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles near
59W from 20N southward, and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 18N
between 57W and 61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough is inland and not over the Atlantic. The ITCZ
extends from 06N20W to 09N40W, then W of a tropical wave near
09N42W to 10N57W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 02N to 15N between 21W and 56W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough along with an
embedded 1009 mb low near 11N82W are triggering scattered heavy
showers and strong thunderstorms over Panama and northwestern
Colombia, S of 13N between 73W and 84W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The remnants of Lisa was located near 21N95W with a central
pressure of 1008. Scattered thunderstorms are noted near the low
center. Moderate to fresh winds are near the low with seas to 5
ft. A cold front has pushed off the Texas coast and is moving into
the NW Gulf, stretching from southeast Texas to northern Mexico.
Gentle to locally moderate winds are noted behind the front with
seas to 5 ft. A pre-frontal trough is noted from the north-central
Gulf from 26N96W to 30N88W with thunderstorms within 75 nm of it.
Gentle E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are evident across the
rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, remnants of Lisa will dissipate over the
southwest Gulf this evening. Elsewhere, high pressure over the
remainder of the Gulf is shifting eastward ahead of a cold front
entering the NW Gulf. The front will stall and dissipate over the
northwest Gulf through Sun. The pressure gradient is expected to
tighten between high pressure building southward over the area and
broad low pressure that will approach Florida from the Bahamas
starting late Sun. This pattern will result in increasing winds
and building seas Mon through Wed over the eastern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface to mid-level trough extends northwestward from
near the ABC Islands to beyond Haiti. A surface low is analyzed
south of Hispaniola near 16N70W with a trough extending from the
Windward Passage to 13N69W. Aided by strong divergent flow aloft
and this surface low, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
found across the eastern basin. This includes the Mona Passage,
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and Lesser Antilles. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the
Caribbean Basin. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas at 5 to
7 ft are present over the eastern basin. Moderate to locally fresh
monsoonal SW winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident at the
offshore waters of Panama and northwestern Colombia. Gentle NE to
E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas prevail over the
northeast Caribbean. Favorable conditions aloft support the
development of broad low pressure near Hispaniola over the next
couple of days. This pattern will support strong to near-gale
force winds over the Atlantic waters near the Leeward Islands with
rough to very rough seas tonight into Sun. These conditions will
improve through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will persist through
the early and middle portions of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an upcoming gale
warning over the SW Atlantic.

A pronounced upper-level trough curves northeastward from a low
over the southeast Bahamas to beyond southeast of Bermuda.
Widespread moderate convection is occurring near these features
north of 18N between 54W and 74W. Farther east, convergent
southerly winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms north of 27N
between 44W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and
Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin.

A surface trough extends from a 1012 low near 32N54W to 24N66W.
Tight pressure gradient is between the 1031 mb Bermuda High and
this system, creating fresh to strong ENE to ESE winds with 9 to
12 ft seas in northerly swell at the western Atlantic north of 25N
between 55W and the Georgia- Florida coast. To the south, gentle
to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present from
20N to 25N between 55W and the Bahamas. Farther east, the surface
ridge related to the 1025 mb Azores High is supporting light to
gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft north of 23N between 30W and
55W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate
with locally fresh NNE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft seas exist
north of 10N between the African coast and 30W. Moderate to fresh
with locally strong NE to ENE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are
evident from 09N to 20N/23N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for
the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong high pressure north of the area
will support strong to near gale force easterly winds, mainly
north of 27N through tonight. Large NE swell will push southward
across the entire area through Sun. Farther south, broad low
pressure is expected form north of Hispaniola Sun. Conditions are
favorable for a subtropical or tropical depression to form during
the early part of next week while the system moves generally
westward to west- northwestward. A tight pressure gradient between
the low and strong high pressure farther north is expected to
lead to a broad area of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of
the low, possibly reaching minimal gale force with very rough
seas north of the Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas
late Sun and Sun night. Looking ahead, strong to gale force winds
and very rough seas are possible off northeast Florida from late
Mon through mid week as the low pressure shifts northwestward into
a strong ridge centered north of the area.

$$
AReinhart
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