[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 051136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Lisa, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
forecast to move northward over the southwest Atlantic on Sunday
where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form north of
Hispaniola.  The system is initially expected to be very broad and
disorganized. However, it could begin to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical depression
could form during the early to middle portion of next week while
the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic.  Regardless of development, there is an
increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy
rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early
to middle part of next week.  The disturbance is also expected to
bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Showers and a few thunderstorms located several hundred miles east
of Bermuda are associated with a non-tropical area of low
pressure.  The circulation of the low has become better defined
since yesterday, and addition slow tropical or subtropical
development of this disturbance is possible during the next two to
three days.  After that time, the system is forecast to encounter
stronger upper-level winds and further development is not
anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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