[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 040838
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
400 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Radar and satellite data indicates that the center of Lisa is now
over water in the Bay of Campeche.  Satellite imagery shows that
the convection has increased over the past several hours,
particularly in a band just northeast of the center.  The initial
intensity is held at 25 kt based mainly on data from a Mexican buoy
to the northeast of the center.

The initial motion is now 290/9.  A turn toward the northwest is
expected later today as the cyclone moves around a low- to
mid-level ridge.  After that, the models indicate the shallow
vortex will likely stall and meander southeastward within the weak
low-level environmental flow over the southwestern Gulf.  There is
little change to either the track guidance or the track forecast
since the last advisory.

Although the center of Lisa is now over water, the cyclone is
experiencing 20-25 kt of southerly shear.  The upper-level winds
should become even less favorable during the next 48-72 h, and the
cyclone is also expected to entrain some dry air.  Due to the
current strong convection, some strengthening is forecast during
the next 12 h, and it is not impossible for Lisa to regain
tropical-storm strength during that time.  Thereafter, the
upper-level winds and dry air should cause the system to weaken,
with Lisa forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area
by 48 h and dissipate completely by 72 h.


Key Messages:

1. Isolated flash flooding is possible across portions of
southeastern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 18.7N  94.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 19.3N  94.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 20.0N  95.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 20.3N  95.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 20.0N  94.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/1800Z 19.6N  94.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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