[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030435
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lisa made landfall SW of Belize City at around 2120
UTC Wednesday afternoon. As of 03/0300 UTC, Lisa is located close
to the boarder of Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico near 17.6N 89.1W
or 50 nm W of Belize City, moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt
with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are currently around 12 ft, quickly
abating. Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is
observed from 16N to 20N, between 87W and 90W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms extend up to 600 nm in outer rain bands
associated with Lisa. For the forecast, Lisa is in the middle of a
rapid weakening trend that will continue overnight due to land
interaction. As such, Lisa is forecast to be a tropical
depression on Thursday. While Lisa is expected to emerge over the
Bay of Campeche in a couple days, strong southwesterly wind shear
will likely prevent significant intensification. Localized flash
flooding is expected across portions of Belize, northern Guatemala
and portions of southeastern Mexico. Swells generated by Lisa are
expected to affect portions of Central America during the next
day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

Hurricane Martin is centered near 39.4N 44.9W at 03/0300 UTC or
840 nm W of the Azores quickly moving NE at 34 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are currently around 29
ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
within 120 nm of the center. Martin is moving very quickly toward
the northeast, and a turn to the north is expected during the
next day or so, taking Martin over the far North Atlantic. Martin
should get marginally stronger, but much larger today. In fact
the 34-kt wind field is expected to roughly triple over the next
12 hours. Martin will be absorbed into an extratropical cyclone
over the next 24 hours, creating a very powerful cyclone. Expect
expansive hazards by Saturday as seas in excess of 12 ft will
cover the vast majority of the Atlantic north of 37N. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details on Hurricane Martin. Also refer to the High Seas forecast
issued by the Ocean Prediction Center for continuing updates
after Martin becomes extratropical and the NHC advisories cease.
https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 63W, from 07N to
17N, moving west at 5 kts. Isolated weak convection is observed
behind the wave from 10N to 15N, between 55W and 62W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent.
The ITCZ extends from northern Guinea near 11N15W to 05N48W. An
upper level low in the central Atlantic, combined with aboundant
tropical moisture, is helping support a large area of scattered
moderate convection from 03N to 11N, between 21W and 46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about
Tropical Storm Lisa.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the outer circulation of
Lisa are observed in the Bay of Campeche. Winds are beginning to
increase as Lisa approaches the southern Gulf, though the system
is losing strength quickly while inland. The majority of the basin
is currently dominated by moderate easterly winds and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lisa near 17.6N 89.1W 991 mb at 11 PM
EDT moving W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 75 kt.
Lisa will move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near
17.7N 90.6W Thu morning, inland to 18.1N 92.5W Thu evening, inland
to 18.8N 94.1W Fri morning, 19.6N 94.9W Fri evening, 20.2N 95.2W
Sat morning, and 20.2N 95.0W Sat evening. Lisa will become a
remnant low as it moves near 19.5N 94.7W late Sun. High pressure
will dominate the remainder basin producing mainly moderate NE to
E winds through Thu. Otherwise, southerly return flow is expected
to strengthen over the NW Gulf Thu night through Fri night ahead
of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Fri night
into Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about
Tropical Storm Lisa in the far NW Caribbean near the coast of
Belize.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the outer circulation of
Lisa are observed through the majority of the basin west of 80W.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted across the
basin. A recent scatterometer pass also found fresh NE winds
through the Windward Passage. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central
Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lisa near 17.6N 89.1W 991 mb at 11 PM
EDT moving W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 75
kt. Lisa will move inland and weaken to a tropical depression
near 17.7N 90.6W Thu morning, inland to 18.1N 92.5W Thu evening,
inland to 18.8N 94.1W Fri morning, 19.6N 94.9W Fri evening, 20.2N
95.2W Sat morning, and 20.2N 95.0W Sat evening. Winds and seas
associated with Lisa will diminish over the NW Caribbean tonight.
Looking ahead, a complex, non-tropical area of low pressure is
expected to develop this weekend over the NE Caribbean Sea or
the SW N Atlantic. Some slow subtropical or tropical development
of this system is possible afterward while it moves generally
N to NW through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about
Hurricane Martin.

A cold front extends across the western subtropical Atlantic from
31N62W to 30N74W. Scatterometer data observed fresh northerly
winds behind the front, which increase with latitude north of the
discussion area. Seas are currently 5-7 ft, on a building trend.
Conditions are more favorable ahead of the front with gentle winds
and 4-6 ft seas.

In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N51W to
20N57W. Scattered moderate convection is observed east of the
trough, from 19N to 31N, between 44W and 54W. Satellite
observations indicate moderate to fresh SW wind and 8-10 ft seas
in this area, on an abating trend as Hurricane Martin moves
quickly NE. High pressure dominates the eastern Atlantic, with
gentle to moderate E-NE wind and 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from 31N61W to 29N65W
will weaken into a frontal trough on Fri. Strong high pressure in
the wake of the front will bring strong to near gale force
easterly winds across the N waters, mainly N of 27N, late Thu
through Sat night. Large NE swell following the front will push
southward across the entire area over the weekend. Looking ahead,
a complex, non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to
develop this weekend over the NE Caribbean Sea or the SW N
Atlantic. Some slow subtropical or tropical development of this
system is possible afterward while it moves generally N to NW
through early next week.

$$
Flynn
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