[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 030249
TCDAT1

Hurricane Martin Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162022
300 AM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022

Martin remains in impressive high-latitude late-season hurricane.
Recent infrared satellite imagery shows deep convection wrapping
around a ragged eye.  The hurricane's cloud shield has begun
expanding over the northern and northwestern portions of the storm
suggesting that the system's extratropical transition is beginning.
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range from
65 to 77 kt, and the initial wind speed will remain on the higher
end of those estimates at 75 kt.

The global model guidance indicates that Martin will strengthen
tonight and early Thursday as it transforms into an extratropical
cyclone.  That transition is expected to be complete by about
1800 UTC on Thursday.  The guidance continues to depict a very
strong sting-jet-like feature around the southern and southwestern
portions of the storm, and the NHC forecast therefore calls for
some strengthening during the next 12 hours or so.  Martin's wind
field is also forecast to rapidly expand in size during the next
day or so, and this is reflected in the wind radii forecast.  The
baroclinic forcing should begin to decrease by late tomorrow, with
gradual weakening occurring after that time, however Martin is
forecast to remain a very large and powerful cyclone over the North
Atlantic for the next several days.

Martin continues to accelerate, and it is now moving northeastward
at about 34 kt. A faster north-northeastward motion is expected
overnight, followed by northward turn on Thursday as Martin moves
around the eastern side of a strong deep-layer trough.  The trough
is forecast to capture Martin by 36 hours, and the merged system is
expected to slow down considerably, and then turn eastward in the
mid-latitude flow.  The updated track forecast is slightly faster
during the first 24 hours, but little change was required
thereafter.  The forecast is a blend of mostly the GFS and ECMWF
global model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 39.4N  44.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 43.8N  40.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 51.9N  36.2W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  04/1200Z 56.0N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  05/0000Z 56.0N  35.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  05/1200Z 55.0N  29.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  06/0000Z 55.0N  21.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  07/0000Z 58.0N   9.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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