[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 020248
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
1100 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have found that Lisa is
strengthening this evening.  Lisa is a small storm, with
tropical-storm-force winds only extending out to 60 n mi from the
center.  The minimum central pressure continues to fall, and the
latest estimate from the dropsonde observations is 993 mb.  Data
from the SFMR and Tail Doppler Radar show that surface or
near-surface winds range between 55 to 60 kt, and the initial
intensity is increased to 60 kt.

Lisa is on a strengthening trend.  Models suggest atmospheric and
oceanic conditions should be conducive for additional
intensification until the storm makes landfall in Belize within 24
hours.  Therefore, steady to rapid intensification is still
possible.  The official forecast shows a peak of 75 kt in 12 hours,
however the true peak intensity will likely occur between 12 and 24
hours and could be higher. Rapid weakening is expected after the
storm moves inland, and Lisa is forecast to be a tropical depression
in the Bay of Campeche in 72 to 96 hours and weaken to a remnant low
by the end of the forecast period.

The storm is moving just north of west at 280/13 kt.  The track
reasoning is unchanged.  A ridge to the north will continue to steer
Lisa westward at a slightly reduced forward speed through landfall
on Wednesday evening.  The storm is expected to follow the flow
around the low-to-mid level ridge into the Bay of Campeche in 3 days
or so.  The cyclone is then expected to turn southward in the
low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly
northward from the previous advisory in the short term, and the
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have been adjusted northward
to account for this shift.


Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where
the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme
southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting
Wednesday afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize and southeastern
Yucatan by Wednesday afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning early Wednesday,
and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical
Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala, the southeastern
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of
Tabasco.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 16.8N  84.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 17.1N  86.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 17.4N  88.4W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 36H  03/1200Z 17.4N  90.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/0000Z 17.5N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  04/1200Z 18.2N  93.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  05/0000Z 19.0N  94.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  06/0000Z 19.7N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  07/0000Z 18.6N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi
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