[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 012051
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
500 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

Satellite images indicate that Lisa continues to become better
organized with a central dense overcast feature forming along with
more curved banding features.  Dvorak estimates have increased as
well, and the current wind speed is set to 55 kt, closest to the
TAFB fix and near an average of the available values.  Two Hurricane
Hunter aircraft, an Air Force C-130 and a NOAA P-3, should be
investigating Lisa this evening to get more in situ data.

Conditions look ripe for continued intensification.  Other than some
lingering dry air, Lisa is moving over very warm waters, in low
shear, and has a small radius-of-maximum winds and an expanding
outflow pattern.  These factors suggest a pretty notable chance of
rapid intensification, and the SHIPS index shows basically a coin
flip chance of a 25-kt wind speed increase within 24 hours.
Additionally, the regional hurricane models HWRF and HMON show Lisa
becoming a category 2 hurricane before landfall.  The new NHC
forecast is similar to those models (note that further
intensification is possible between the 24h forecast and Belize
landfall) and a bit higher than the corrected-consensus guidance.

Lisa continues moving just north of due west or 280/13 kt.  This
westward track with some reduction in forward speed is anticipated
due to the storm staying south of a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.
While the synoptic pattern is about the same as before, a
vertically deeper Lisa is more likely to feel upper-level
southeasterly flow and will probably not lose any latitude near
landfall.  Thus, the latest forecast has been adjusted about 15-20
n mi north of the previous one with the model guidance nudging in
that direction.

With the northward adjustment and a stronger cyclone in the
forecast, more of the models are showing Lisa making it across
Central America and Mexico as a weak tropical cyclone into the
extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Friday.  Although the new NHC
forecast now indicates this likelihood, Lisa isn't expected to
be a significant event there due to stronger shear, and
re-intensification is not indicated in the official forecast.


Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where
the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and for the southern
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting Wednesday afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday
afternoon.  Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern
Yucatan in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning tonight into
Wednesday, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical
Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas starting tonight through
Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 16.7N  83.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 17.0N  85.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 17.2N  87.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 17.3N  88.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/1800Z 17.3N  90.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  04/0600Z 17.6N  91.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  04/1800Z 18.4N  93.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  05/1800Z 19.8N  94.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  06/1800Z 19.0N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake
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