[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Nov 01 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm LISA, at 01/1800 UTC, is near 16.5N
82.5W, in the Caribbean Sea. Lisa is also about 440 km/238 nm to
the E of Isla Roatan of Honduras, and about 615 km/332 nm to the
east of Belize City in Belize. Lisa is moving W, or 280 degrees,
13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60
knots. Tropical storm force winds are within 60 nm of the center
in the NE quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant, within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and
within 20 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights
of 12 feet or greater are within 90 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant, within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 0
nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 0 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching
14 feet. The wind speeds are ranging from 20 knots to 33 knots,
and the sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet,
elsewhere within 150 nm N semicircle, and within 90 nm SE
quadrant. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is from 11N northward from 80W westward. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere to the south of the
line that runs from Jamaica to 13N60W. Please, read the latest
NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm MARTIN, 01/1500 UTC, is near 35.3N
55.9W, in the Atlantic Ocean. Martin is moving E, or 90 degrees,
10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55
knots. Tropical storm force winds are within 180 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant,  within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and
within 180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights
of 12 feet or greater are within 0 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant, within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within
270 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 240 nm of
the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are
reaching 20 feet. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 30N to 40N between 40W and 60W. Please,
read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 18N
southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 06N
to 19N between 49W and 65W, in the Atlantic Ocean and in the
Caribbean Sea, and including in parts of Venezuela and Guyana.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal plains Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N20W
03N30W, to the Equator along 39W, to 01S42W. to 10N17W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 09N from 42W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through 31N81W in the Atlantic Ocean,
through NE Florida, to 26N86W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
trough is about 135 nm to the southeast of the stationary front.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is possible within 120 nm on
either side of the surface trough in Florida and in the Gulf of
Mexico.

A surface trough extends from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico, along the Mexico Gulf coast, to the Deep South
of Texas, into the Gulf of Mexico near 28N95W. Precipitation:
isolated modeate to locally strong is from 22N northward from
90W westward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 27N northward.

Sea heights that range from 5 feet to 6 feet have been in the
west central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights
range from 2 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of the Gulf. The
wind speeds range from 20 knots to 30 knots, in areas of
convective precipitation, from 26N northward from 92W westward,
within 275 nm to the east of the surface trough. Moderate to
fresh wind speeds are in the remainder of the area.

A stationary front in the NE Gulf will move east of the basin as
a weak cold front by Wed night. A trough situated just offshore
the coast of Texas will produce fresh to locally strong winds
through this evening. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the
basin producing mainly moderate NE to E winds through Thu. SE to
S return flow is expected to strengthen in the NW Gulf toward
the end of the work-week, ahead of a possible cold front
entering the far W Gulf during the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm LISA.

Fresh to strong winds are within 280 nm of the coast of
Venezuela and Colombia between 70W and 77W.
Moderate to fresh winds are from 70W eastward. Tropical Storm
LISA is moving through the west central Caribbean Sea. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet to the east of T.S. LISA.

Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that
ended at 01/1200 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN, are: 1.98 in Curacao, and
0.44 in Monterrey in Mexico.

Tropical Storm Lisa near 16.3N 81.8W 1001 mb at 11 AM EDT moving
W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Lisa will
move to 16.6N 83.7W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near
16.8N 86.0W Wed morning, 17.0N 88.0W Wed evening, move inland
and weaken to a tropical storm near 17.0N 89.4W Thu morning,
move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 17.0N 90.9W
Thu evening, and become a remnant low and move to 17.5N 92.5W
Fri morning. Lisa will dissipate early Sat. With the
exception of light to gentle variable winds in the SW Caribbean,
moderate to locally fresh trade winds are forecast elsewhere
through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Martin.
A dissipating cold front passes through 31N52W 26N60W 25N69W.
Moderate to fresh winds are from 24N northward between 50W and
62W. Tropical Storm MARTIN is near 35.3N 55.9W at 01/1500 UTC.
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 135 nm
to the southeast of the dissipating cold front between 52W and
57W. Isolated moderate is within 240 nm to the south and to the
southeast of the dissipating cold front from 62W eastward. The
sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from the dissipating
cold front northward between 62W and 74W.

A stationary front passes through 31N81W in the Atlantic Ocean,
through NE Florida, to 26N86W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
trough is about 135 nm to the southeast of the stationary front.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 28N northward from 74W
westward. A broad surface ridge is between the stationary front
and the dissipating cold front that is to the south of T.S.
MARTIN.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 07N to 16N between 44W and
52W. Moderate to fresh winds are to the south and to the
southeast of the line 31N13W 24N31W 22N45W 19N60W. The sea
heights range from 7 to 8 feet from 26N northward between 28W
and 40W, and from 09N to 18N between 50W and the 58W/59W
tropical wave. The sea heights range from 4 to 6 feet in most of
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally
strong convective precipitation cover the Atlantic Ocean from
10N northward between the Cabo Verde Islands and 50W. A cyclonic
circulation center is near 21N39W.

A surface ridge passes through 31N20W, to 27N34W, and to 25N50W.
Gentle wind speeds or slower are in the area of the surface
ridge and its nearby surface anticyclonic wind flow.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 27N northward from 20W
eastward.

A weakening cold front extending from 31N52W to 25N60W to 24N68W
will move E and dissipate tonight, then continue moving east
across the NE waters as a surface trough through Thu. Another
cold front will reach the N waters by Wed afternoon. Strong high
pressure in the wake of the front will
bring strong easterly winds across the N waters, mainly N of
27N, Thu night through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh
trade winds will persist in the Great Bahama Bank and the
approaches of the Windward Passage through Thu.

$$
mt/gr
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net