[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Mar 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force S to SW winds
with frequent gusts to gale force will continue off NE Florida, N
of 27N W of 77W through tonight, ahead of a cold front forecast
that will enter the western Atlantic on Fri. Wave heights with
these winds are in the 9 to 11 ft range.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Frequent wind gusts to 35 kt are
occurring N of 22N and E of the Florida W coast. By mid Fri
morning, winds are expected to diminish to strong speeds with seas
marginally subsiding to between 8 and 11 ft.

For more information on both warnings, please see the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. An ITCZ curves from
EQ22W across 02S34W to NE of Belem, Brazil near 02N45W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near the ITCZ from
05S to 02N between 25W and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning.

A cold front curves southwestward from just E of New Orleans to
28N94W and to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers are
occurring up to 40 nm E and S of the front. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen over the NE Gulf just S of the Florida Big
Bend area. A surface trough runs northeastward from a 1005 mb low
at the SW Bay of Campeche to the central Gulf. Patchy showers are
present near the features. Smoke produced by spotty agricultural
fires near Vera Cruz, Mexico might reduce visibilities over the
adjacent Gulf waters. If mariners encounter reduced visibilities
due to smoke, they are encouraged to report the observation to the
National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425.

Outside the Gale Warning area, Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident over the SE Gulf, including the
Florida Strait and Yucatan Channel. Moderate NW to NE winds with
seas at 6 to 8 ft exist across the NW and N central Gulf. Light to
gentle cyclonic winds are found over the SW Gulf, including the
Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the Florida Big
Bend to near Tuxpan, Mexico by later this evening, becoming
stationary by early Fri. The front will lift N as a warm front
through Fri night, then push offshore again for the remainder of
the weekend before washing out along 26N Sun night. Southerly
return flow will dominate for the start of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from the Bahamas across
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. This feature is sustaining
E to SE trade winds over the Caribbean Sea. Scattered trade-wind
showers are near the Less Antilles. Fresh to strong trades are
noted across the Gulf of Honduras, and N of Colombia; producing 8
to 10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades along with 4 to 7 ft seas
prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to sustain
fresh to strong winds in the S central Caribbean near the coast
of Colombia, south of the Dominican Republic, and in the Gulf of
Honduras, except diminishing south of Hispaniola Fri night.
Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to fresh
trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will continue east
of the Lesser Antilles through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning.

A cold front curves southwestward from the central Atlantic across
31N44W to 23N54W, then continues westward as a shear line to near
the SE Bahamas. Scattered showers are found near and up to 80 nm
SE of the front, and up to 80 nm N of the shear line. A surface
trough NE of French Guinea-Brazil border is triggering scattered
moderate convection from 03N to 07N between 44W and the French
Guinea-Brazil coastline. Upper-level winds are streaming thick
cirrus across the Tropical Atlantic from 06N to 11N between the
central African coast and 57W.

Outside the Gale Warning area, moderate to fresh northerly winds
and 9 to 13 ft seas in NW swell are present in the central
Atlantic N of 26N between 43W and 62W. Moderate to fresh SE winds
and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted from the Bahamas northward, between
62W and 76W. Moderate to fresh NE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are
found S of the Canary Islands from 12N to 27N between the NW
African coast and 30W. Gentle to moderate NE trades and seas of 6
to 7 ft exist from the Equator to 17N between 30W and the Lesser
Antilles. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for
the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong easterly winds
south of 23N and west of 70W will gradually diminish through early
Fri. Strong southerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force
will continue off northeastern Florida through tonight ahead of a
cold front that will move across the waters offshore northeastern
Florida early on Fri, then across the northern waters through Sat.
The front is forecast to become stationary across the central
waters by early Sun. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to precede the front today and tonight. Another cold
front may move across the basin late in the weekend into early
next week.

$$

Chan
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