[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290456
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N15W to 08N16W. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 00N24W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed within 210 nm of the ITCZ W of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 27N85W, providing a
fairly stable airmass to suppress any shower activity. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft seas are over the eastern
Gulf near the high pressure. Farther west, moderate to fresh SE
winds are present over the southern and western Gulf, except
locally strong off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas
of 3-5 prevail, except as high as 6-7 ft off the NW Yucatan.
Areas of smoke could be reducing visibilities to 3-5 miles
within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and the
Mouth of the Rio Grande River, due to agricultural fires in
Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf
will support gentle to moderate winds over the eastern Gulf, and
moderate to fresh return flow over the western Gulf through
early this morning, except fresh to strong north-northwest of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Southerly winds over the western Gulf are
expected to gradually increase to strong to near gale force
speeds from this afternoon through Wed. These winds along with
rough seas will spread to the central and eastern Gulf on Wed
ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf by
late Wed. A line of showers and thunderstorms could accompany
this cold front over the NW Gulf of Mexico Wed afternoon. The
front is expected to weaken and move slow along the central Gulf
through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line is over the western Caribbean from 16N82W to
17N87.5W. Cloudiness and isolated showers are occurring over the
NW Caribbean Sea from 16N-20N between 81W-88W. Scattered showers
are also present within 60 nm of the coasts of NW Colombia and
eastern Panama. A recent ASCAT satellite pass depicts fresh NE
winds over the western Caribbean Sea, except strong winds are
noted in the lee of Cuba and offshore of Colombia. Strong NE
winds are also likely occurring between the Windward Passage and
Jamaica. The ASCAT data shows moderate trade winds over the
eastern Caribbean, east of 70W. Seas average 5-7 ft over the
western Caribbean, except up to 7-10 ft offshore Colombia. Seas
of 3-5 ft prevail over the eastern portion of the basin.

For the forecast, the shear-line in the Gulf of Honduras will
keep lingering clouds and showers over the NW Caribbean through
at least tonight. High pressure north of the area will promote
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage, south of the
Dominican Republic, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of
Honduras through the week. Winds will diminish in the lee of
Cuba and across the Windward passage Wed night. Moderate to
fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Winds will diminish somewhat
across the basin for the start of the upcoming weekend as the
high pressure weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge axis extends from 30N58W to 26N68W to a 1022 mb
high pressure, centered over the Bahamas near 25N76W. The
surface ridge axis continues from there into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are within a couple
hundred nm of the ridge axis. An east-west oriented stationary
front is along 31N, between 72W and the coast of Georgia. Recent
ASCAT data shows fresh W winds north of 29N between 66W-76W. A
cold front over the central Atlantic extends from 31N54W to
27N58W, where it transitions to a stationary front, which
continues southwestward to the N coast of the Dominican Republic
near 20N71W. Isolated showers are possible near the front. Winds
associated with the front have weakened significantly, and are
now moderate or weaker. Seas are generally 4-7 ft across the
aforementioned areas of the western and central Atlantic, except
6-8 ft north of 29N between 55W-75W.

Farther east, a 1028 mb high pressure centered near 32N39W
dominates the eastern Atlantic. A 1009 mb low pressure centered
near 31N16W extends a surface trough southwestward across the
Canary Islands. Fresh NW to N winds are over the Canary Islands,
to the west of the low. Farther south, fresh winds are noted in
scatterometer data in the tropical Atlantic from 04N-16N between
30W-57W, where seas are averaging 7 to 8 ft.

For the forecast, the front extending from 31N54W to the N coast
of Hispaniola will bring prolonged showers across Hispaniola and
the adjacent waters while it transitions to a shear-line by
mid-week. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring
fresh to strong easterly winds across the waters south-southwest
of the Bahamas beginning Tue. Winds will also increase to fresh
to strong speeds east of the Florida Peninsula by late Wed
through Thu night ahead of the next cold front forecast to
enter the western Atlantic on Fri. The front will not move much
south of 30N while weakening Sat and Sat night.

$$
Hagen
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