[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281014
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Mar 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal plains of Guinea near
10N14W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N-03N between 38W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1021 mb located over the eastern Gulf near 26N85W
dominates the basin, producing gentle to moderate winds over much
of the eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the
western Gulf. Light and variable winds are near the high pressure
center. Fresh to locally strong east winds are seen near the NW of
the Yucatan Peninsula, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds are
observed over the Yucatan Channel based on a recent scatterometer
data. Seas are 3-5 ft over the SE waters, including the Yucatan
Channel and the waters just N of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas in
the 1-3 ft range are noted elsewhere. The southerly flow is
advecting some low-level clouds across the western Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern Gulf will support
light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to
fresh return flow over the western Gulf through tonight. Then,
southerly winds over the western Gulf are expected to gradually
increase to fresh to strong speeds Tue through Wed. These winds
along with rough seas are going to spread to the central and
eastern Gulf on Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter
the NW Gulf by late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across Haiti, then a shear-line continues over
the NW Caribbean, crossing S of Jamaica into the Gulf of Honduras.
Low level clouds, with embedded showers, associated with the front
are affecting Hispaniola. Patches of low level clouds, with possible
showers, are related to the shear-line. Farther south, showers
and thunderstorms have been flaring up over northern Colombia and
western Venezuela. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow
is also seen over the NE Caribbean.

Recent ASCAT satellite wind data confirmed the presence of the
shear-line, with fresh to locally strong NE winds to the N of the
line, and gentle to moderate E wind to the S of it. Fresh to
strong NE winds are noted across the Windward Passage and downwind
to near 18N75W. Similar wind speeds are also observed over the
south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia, and in the
Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are across the reminder
of the east and central Caribbean. Recent altimeter data show
seas of 5 to 7 ft over the NW Caribbean. Wave heights of 6-8 ft
are near the coast of Colombia, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front and the shear line will keep lingering
showers over the northwestern Caribbean, including Jamaica and Hispaniola
this morning. High pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and western
Atlantic will promote fresh to strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, across the Windward Passage,
in the lee of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras through at least
Wed. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate to
fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will persist
east of the Lesser Antilles through the Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N58W to Haiti. A band of low
level clouds, with embedded showers is associated with the frontal
boundary. Satellite derived winds data provide observations of
fresh to strong NW winds across the waters N of 28N W of 65W.
Mainly moderate N winds are affecting the Bahamas. Seas are in the
6 to 9 ft range across much of the western Atlantic, highest north
of 27N between 65W-77W.

Farther east, a 1024 mb high pressure centered near 31N42W dominates
the central Atlantic. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1003 mb low pressure
is spinning near 30N20W, with a surface trough extending from the
low center to near 25N27W. The low is generating some shower activity,
mainly between the Madeira and the Canary Islands. Recent scatterometer
data indicate fresh to strong winds on the western semicircle of the
low center, and just N of the above mentioned surface trough. These
winds are affecting mainly the waters N of 25N between 22W and
28W. Seas of 12-16 ft are also associated with the low, covering
roughly the waters N of 25N between the western Canary Islands and
34W in the Meteo-France area of responsibility.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong NW winds associated
with the aforementioned cold front over the waters N of 27N will
diminish today. The front will continue to move SE, affecting
Hispaniola over the next couple of days while weakening. High
pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong
easterly winds across the waters S of 23N-24N beginning on Tue.
Then, winds will also increase to fresh to strong speeds E of the
Florida Peninsula by late Wed into Thu ahead of the next cold
front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Fri.

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net