[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280446
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea and
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 07N15W. The ITCZ extends from
04N16W to 01N27W to 00N36W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W.
Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted south of 06N and
east of 22W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of 04N
between 23W and the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a
1020 mb high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf near
26.5N84W. Gentle anticyclonic wind flow prevails across most of
the basin, with seas ranging from 1 to 4 ft. Fresh E winds and
seas of 4 to 5 ft are likely occurring in the Yucatan Channel
and off the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate SE to
S winds are occurring off the coast of southern Texas, where
seas are around 3 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support light
to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh
return flow over the western Gulf through tonight. Then,
southerly winds over the western Gulf are expected to gradually
increase to strong speeds Tue through Wed. These winds along
with rough seas are going to spread to the central and eastern
Gulf on Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the
NW Gulf by late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from 20N71.5W, across northern Haiti, and
ending near 19N75W. A shear line continues from 19N75W to
17.5N76W to the Gulf of Honduras near 17N88W. Cloudiness with
possible showers exist near and within 120 nm north of the shear
line, between Jamaica and Belize. Recent total precipitable
water imagery shows high moisture content over the Gulf of
Honduras. Farther south, showers and thunderstorms have been
flaring up near the Colombia low, over Colombia and over water
from 08N-11N between 73W-76.5W.

Recent ASCAT satellite wind data show mainly fresh NE winds over
the NW Caribbean, but strong speeds are noted in the Windward
Passage and east of Jamaica. Strong winds are also likely
occurring in the lee of Cuba. Recent altimeter data from 28/0017
UTC show seas of 5 to 7 ft over the NW Caribbean. Fresh trades
cover the southern Caribbean with strong winds near the coast of
Colombia. Seas likely average 5 to 6 ft in this area, except up
to 8 ft near the coast of Colombia. Gentle wind speeds are
present over the northeast Caribbean, where seas are 3-4 ft.

For the forecast, the shear line will keep lingering showers
over the northwestern Caribbean, including Jamaica and
Hispaniola this morning. High pressure over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and western Atlantic will promote fresh to strong trades
in the western and central sections through at least mid-week.
This area includes N of Colombia, the lee of Cuba, the Windward
Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Trade winds over the eastern
section will become moderate to fresh by Tue morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N59W to 25N65W to the north
coast of Haiti near 20N72W. Scattered moderate convection near
the front is mainly north of 29N and east of 61W. Cloudiness and
possible isolated showers are present elsewhere along the front.
Recent ASCAT data show mainly fresh NW winds north of 27N and
west of 68W, with moderate north winds south of 27N, over the
Bahamas. Seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range across most of the
western Atlantic, highest north of 27N between 65W-77W.

Farther east, a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N43W
dominates the central Atlantic with surface ridging. In the
eastern Atlantic, a 1000 mb occluded low pressure system is
centered near 30N22W. The cold front associated with this system
is well to the east, now entering the African continent. The
tail end of this cold front is analyzed as a dissipating cold
front, extending over the Atlantic from 21N16W to the Cabo Verde
Islands near 17N25W. Scattered showers are along the front.
Recent ASCAT wind data show strong winds within 390 nm W of the
low and within 300 nm south of the low pressure, with a small
area of near-gale winds in the southern semicircle. Altimeter
data from 27/2035 UTC show wave heights of 15 to 18 ft from
27N-31N between 20W-23W. Seas are likely still 13 to 16 ft in
this area, to the west of the Canary Islands. Farther south in
the tropical Atlantic, fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas
prevail from 02N-15N between 35W-50W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the fresh winds north of 27N and
west of 68W will diminish this morning. The front will remain
nearly stationary from 23N65W to the Dominican Republic through
Wed while gradually weakening. By this afternoon, a high
pressure building eastward from Florida should bring improving
conditions to the western part of the area. Then, east to
southeast winds will increase to fresh to strong across the
waters S of 24N beginning on Tue. Winds will also increase to
fresh to strong speeds E of the Florida Peninsula Wed evening
into Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the
western Atlantic on Fri.

$$
Hagen
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