[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: A gale-force 993 mb low pressure system
centered near 33N24W, or about 500 nm northwest of the Canary
Islands, is forecast to move toward the south-southeast to near
30N21W over the next 24 hours while weakening some. Gale-force
winds will occur in its western semicircle this morning from 30N-
31N between 25W-30W, in the marine zone Irving. Winds will
diminish below gale force by this afternoon, as the low pressure
system weakens. Wave heights of 15-20 ft are expected today where
the gales occur. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to the coast of Brazil
near 01S44W. Numerous moderate convection is noted S of 07N and E
of 22W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 02N between 25W-
34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across most of the basin, anchored by a
1020 mb high pressure centered near 28N90W. Recent ASCAT
satellite wind data depict gentle wind speeds across much of the
Gulf. However, fresh WNW winds are occurring in the NE Gulf.
These winds are likely being induced by an east-west oriented cold
front, currently situated across the Florida Panhandle. Seas are
2-4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 1-3 ft in the western Gulf. The
highest seas are found in the Yucatan Channel, currently estimated
at 4 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front over the Florida Panhandle expected
to sustain moderate to fresh winds across the E Gulf through this
morning. The 1020 mb high centered over the central Gulf will
allow for moderate to fresh return flow prevail across the basin.
Toward mid-week, fresh to strong with locally near-gale southerly
flow and rough seas will develop across much of the Gulf ahead of
a cold front that will approach the Texas coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends from 20N78W to near 19N83W.
Scattered showers are noted near the front. Mainly moderate to
fresh north to northeast winds are located to the northwest of the
front, according to the latest ASCAT and buoy data. Seas are
likely 5 to 6 ft in this area. As for the remainder of the basin,
the latest ASCAT data depicts fresh trades across the south-
central Caribbean, mainly S of 14N between 63W-78W, where seas
are likely 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere with
4-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate today. High pressure
over the central Atlantic will promote fresh to strong trades in
the S central Gulf, N of Colombia through midweek, and in the lee
of Cuba and the Windward Passage through Tue night. Trades across
the N central and NE basin will become moderate to fresh by Tue
morning. Fresh trade winds along with larger trade-wind swell will
persist for the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles through
the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for more
information on the Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic.

Three cold fronts are over the western Atlantic. The westernmost
front extends from 31N76W to 30N81W. Recent ASCAT data depict
strong to near gale force W winds associated with this front, to
the east of northern Florida. W of 70W, seas increase from 6 ft
near 27N to 10 ft near 31N. A second cold front extends from
31N68W to 26N73W, dissipating to 25N74W. Fresh winds are behind
this front, N of 29N, with weaker winds farther south. A third
cold front extends from 31N64W to eastern Cuba near 21N75W.
Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of this front.
Moderate to fresh SW winds are within 180 nm east of this front,
N of 25N. Weaker winds are elsewhere with this front. Seas of 6-8
ft are near the front N of 25N.

Farther east, a 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 29N46W.
Gentle winds cover the area from 20N-31N between 40W-55W. A cold
front extends from the 993 mb low pressure, mentioned above in
the special features section, to 31N16W to 23N21W to 17N35W.
Scattered showers are N of 28N near the front. Fresh to strong
winds are north of 25N between 15W-35W, associated with this
system, with near-gale force winds now moving S of 31N between
25W-30W. Seas are 12 to 16 ft in the fresh to strong wind area.

For the forecast, the westernmost cold front that just moved off
northern Florida will steadily move eastward through Mon
morning, with strong winds progressing into the W central
Atlantic waters. The fresh SW winds that are east of the cold
front extending from 31N64W to 25N70W are anticipated to shift
eastward across the central Atlantic through Mon. By Mon night,
a high pressure building eastward from Florida should bring
improving conditions to the western Atlantic.

$$
ERA
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