[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Mar 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between high pressure north
of the area and lower pressure over South America will once again
pulse winds to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight.
Wave heights with these winds are forecast to reach 12 ft. These
conditions will gradually improve afterwards and through the
weekend as the gradient relaxes. Please read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 09N13W to 01N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 00N27W
to near 00N31W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
noted from 04S to 05N between 12W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...A cold front extends from near Sarasota, Florida,
to just north of Cancun, Mexico. A post-frontal trough extends a
bit into the Gulf from the Florida Big Bend region. Deep moisture
along and behind the front is leading to numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection that extends within about 120 nm NW of
the cold front. Behind the front, a 1024 mb high pressure has
surged south and is just offshore Tampico, Mexico. A secondary
cold front, void of precipitation, is noted from the Louisiana
coast to near Corpus Christi Bay. A surge of fresh to locally
strong winds is noted behind this front, mainly N of 27N.
Elsewhere in the Gulf, behind the main front, mainly moderate to
fresh N winds dominate, although some strong winds are within 180
nm of the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Ahead of the front in
the SE Gulf, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas through the Gulf
are 4 to 7 ft, highest where the strong winds are occurring.

As for the forecast, the cold front will continue to move across
the SE Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula through this evening,
exiting the Gulf waters by tonight. Winds will diminish
thereafter. Showers and thunderstorms will continue along the
frontal boundary through this evening. The weaker cold front in
the NW Gulf will move mainly across the northern waters, reaching
the NE Gulf by Fri. It will exit the basin by Fri night. Fresh to
strong SW winds will develop ahead of the front. Mainly fresh NW
winds will follow the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.

Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, which is
leading to subsidence and mostly dry conditions. Mainly fresh
winds dominate the basin, with strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean and moderate winds in the NW basin. Locally strong winds
are also occurring S of Haiti and in the vicinity of the Leeward
Islands. Winds in the Gulf of Honduras have diminished this
afternoon. Wave heights are in the 8 to 12 ft range in the south-
central and SW Caribbean, 5 to 7 ft in the north-central and
eastern basin, and 3 to 5 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will sustain
pulsing winds to gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight.
Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the east and central
Caribbean through tonight, then the aerial extent of these winds
will diminish on Fri, with an area of fresh to strong trades
persisting over the south-central Caribbean into the upcoming
weekend. A cold front is expected to move into the NW Caribbean
tonight, bringing fresh to locally strong winds across the Yucatan
Channel and Gulf of Honduras through Fri. The front will
gradually dissipate by Sat. Fresh trade winds, along with large
trade-wind swell, across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will
persist through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has moved off the NE Florida coast this afternoon.
Ahead of it, fresh to strong SW winds are occurring N of 27N and W
of 73W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
behind the front. A 1026 mb high pressure nearly stationary just E
of Bermuda is dominate most of the remainder of the waters to the
W of 50W, leading to anticyclonic winds of gentle to moderate
magnitude for areas N of 23N. To the south, moderate to fresh
trades dominate. Farther E, a cold front stretches from 32N37W to
23N50W. To the north of the front, fresh to strong NW winds
dominate, with mainly moderate winds to the east. Scattered
moderate convection is along the front, N of 28N. Then, across the
eastern North Atlantic S of 20N, moderate to fresh trades once
again dominate. Seas behind the front in the central Atlantic
range from 8 to 12 ft, with 8 to 10 ft seas in the tropical
Atlantic S of 15N. Elsewhere in the basin, 5 to 7 ft seas
dominate.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh trade winds offshore Hispaniola,
including the Windward Passage, will pulse to strong tonight.
Fresh to strong southerly winds off Florida will persist through
Fri ahead of a cold front that is currently moving off the NE
Florida coast. The front will reach from 31N75W to the NW Bahamas
and western Cuba by Fri morning, and from 31N66W to the central
Bahamas and central Cuba by Sat morning. At this time, a
reinforcing cold front will extend from 31N75W to near West Palm
Beach, Florida. This will bring another round of fresh to strong
winds behind it. Afterward, a strengthening low pressure off the
Carolina coast should prolong these winds through Sun.

For the forecast E of 65W, a low pressure system late this week
near the Azores will have a cold front extending from it
south- southwestward, bringing strong to near gale force winds to
the area north of 25N between 25W-50W, tonight through Fri night,
spreading eastward through weekend. Wave heights are forecast to
build to the range of 10-17 ft over the area affected by these
winds.

$$
KONARIK
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