[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232221
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Mar 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds off the coast of Colombia are
currently NE-E 20-30 kt, along with seas of 7 to 10 ft. Winds are
forecast to pulse to gale force tonight and again Thu night. Seas
will peak around 12 to 13 ft early Thu morning. Winds and seas
should gradually diminish by the weekend. Please read the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea-Bissau and
Guinea near 11N15W to 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to
01S31W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 05S to 03N between 28W
and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Mexico Beach, Florida to 24N90W to
the Bay of Campeche near 18.5N93W. A pre-frontal squall line
extends from 29N84W to 26N86W at 1800 UTC. Frequent lightning and
gusty winds can be expected with the squall line. Recent buoy
data shows seas of 7 ft over the northeast Gulf, but seas are
likely up to 8 ft near the squall line. Fresh to strong NW to N
winds are noted west of the front, with moderate to fresh S winds
east of the front, higher in and near the thunderstorms. Seas are
5 to 8 ft west of the front, and 3 to 6 ft east of the front.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong southerly winds will
continue across the NE Gulf through this evening, and SE Gulf
until Thu morning ahead of the cold front. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are expected behind the front through Thu morning,
mostly in the SW Gulf. The front will reach the Yucatan Peninsula
mid Thu morning, and then over the NW Caribbean and W Cuba Fri
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will continue along the front
through Thu evening. A weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf on
Thu and bring moderate to fresh winds behind it. This front will
arrive at the NE Gulf by Fri afternoon and exit by Sat evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.

Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, which is
leading to subsidence and mostly dry conditions. An area of
cloudiness with possible isolated showers is noted to the south
of as well as across Hispaniola, moving westward in the trade
wind flow, with additional cloudiness and possible showers from
near the Cayman Islands to portions of western Cuba. Moderate to
fresh trades dominate the basin, except fresh to strong in the
south-central Caribbean, northeast of the Gulf of Honduras, and
south-southwest of Haiti. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in the south-central
Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft south-southwest of Haiti, and mainly 4 to 7
ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will sustain
pulsing winds to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia
tonight and Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across
the central Caribbean through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras to pulse again tonight. Fresh to
locally strong winds will prevail in the eastern Caribbean
through Fri night. Fresh trade winds, along with large trade-wind
swell, across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will persist
through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is west of northern Florida with fresh to strong
southerly winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft ahead of it north of 28N to
78W. A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 30N66W. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds are under the high along with 3 to 5 ft
seas, from roughly north of 26N between 62W and 71W. Moderate to
fresh anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere west of 65W, locally
fresh to strong north of Hispaniola. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the
remainder of the waters west of 65W in mixed swell.

Farther east, a remnant frontal trough extends from 31N46W to
24N61W. A 60-nm wide line of clouds and isolated showers
accompanies the trough. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the
central Atlantic north of 29N between 40W and 55W, with stronger
winds north of 31N due to a large, and complex gale-force low
pressure system well north of the area. NW to N swell from that
system is likely currently reaching as far south as 29N, with seas
of 8 to 11 ft from 29N to 31N over the central Atlantic. Surface
ridging prevails from a 1027 mb high pressure north of the area
and southwest of the Azores near 35N28W to 31N45W to 24N60W.
Gentle winds are within a few hundred nm of the ridge axis, where
seas are 5 to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted
elsewhere southeast and south of the ridging, except moderate to
fresh south of 20N and west of 55W. Seas are 7 to 11 ft across
the waters southeast and south of the ridging.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh trade winds offshore
Hispaniola, including the Windward Passage will pulse to strong
tonight and Thu night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds off NE
Florida are going to continue through Thu morning before shifting
eastward Thu afternoon. A cold front will push off the NE Florida
coast late Thu afternoon. It will maintain fresh to strong
southerly winds to its E, and northerly winds to its W over the
waters N of 27N through Fri. A second cold front will move into
the western Atlantic late Fri, bringing more fresh to locally
strong winds behind it. Afterward, a strengthening low pressure
off the Carolina coast should prolong these winds through Sun.

For the forecast east of 65W, a low pressure system late this week
near the Azores will extend a cold front south-southwestward,
bringing strong to near gale force winds to the area north of 25N
between 25W and 50W, Thu night through Fri night, spreading
eastward through upcoming weekend. Seas are forecast to build to
10 to 17 ft over the area of these winds.

$$
Lewitsky
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