[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds off the coast of Colombia are
currently NE strong breeze and will pulse to gale force tonight
and again Wed night. Today, seas will range from 8-11 ft, then
peak around 12 ft overnight and Wed night in the highest winds.
Winds and seas should gradually diminish through the end of the
week. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border Sierra Leone and
Liberia near 07N11W to 03N14W. The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to
the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Isolated moderate to strong
convection is noted south of 07N west of 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 2100 UTC, a cold front extends across the NW Gulf from SW
Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted north of 28N between 89W-
91W. West of both the front, fresh to strong NW winds are
occurring according to recent surface observations. East of the
front, fresh to strong SE to S winds have been reported across
the basin north of 25N. Seas are 8-10 ft north of 25N and west
of 85W. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, mainly fresh SE flow
prevails with seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly return flow is
expected across the eastern Gulf through early Wed morning ahead
of a cold front that currently extends from SW Louisiana to near
Tampico, Mexico. The front will reach the SE waters by late Thu,
and move just SE of the area by Thu night. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will follow the front on Wed, mainly across the
western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia.

Outside of the gale warning area, moderate to fresh E trades
prevail over the central Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. The latest
observations indicates moderate E trades in the Eastern
Caribbean, which curve cyclonically around a trough analyzed
along 66W from 12N to 18N. Seas are 4-6 ft in the E Caribbean.
In the W Caribbean, SE trades are moderate and seas are 4-6 ft.
While no significant convection is apparent on satellite across
the Caribbean, patches of low-level moisture embedded in the
trade flow may produce isolated showers this evening.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
pulsing winds to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia
tonight and Wed night. Fresh to locally strong winds will
prevail elsewhere across the central and eastern Caribbean.
Fresh trade winds, along with large trade-wind swell, across the
Tropical Atlantic forecast zones will persist during the
forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N52W to 25N64W then becomes a
dissipating stationary front to 24N73W. Scattered showers are
within 120 NM east of the front. West of the front to the
Florida coast, moderate to fresh E to SE flow prevails along the
southern periphery of high pressure centered at 32N72W with 5-7
ft seas. North of 15N and and west of 50W, gentle to moderate E
winds and 6-8 ft seas are noted. South of 15N and west of 50W,
seas are 8-10 ft with fresh NE flow. East of 50W, across the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic, fresh to strong NE
trades prevail with 8-11 ft seas in N swell.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong
nightly offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage
through Wed night. A weakening stationary front extending along
25N will dissipate on Wed. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are
expected off NE Florida tonight through Thu ahead of the next
cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic by Thu
afternoon. The fresh to strong southerly wind will persist ahead
of the front over the waters N of 27N through Fri.

$$
Mahoney/Landsea
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