[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220931
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Mar 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning...Gale force winds, and seas to 12 ft, are
ongoing within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Winds are expected
to diminish below gale force by sunrise, then pulse once again to
gale fore tonight.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...A broad area of strong to near- gale
force SE return flow to around 30 kt prevails across the western
Gulf. Within these near-gale winds are frequent gusts to gale
force. Seas are reaching 11 ft within this area. Winds will
diminish this morning.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 02S22W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 06S to 01N between 10W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on gales in the western Gulf due to
frequent gusts. Aside from this area, fresh to strong southerly
return flow prevails. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range over the NW
Gulf and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong to near gale-force southerly return flow
is expected across the western Gulf through this morning. Fresh
to strong SE to S winds will prevail elsewhere. The next cold
front is forecast to enter the Gulf waters by this afternoon. This
front will reach the SE waters by late Thu. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will follow the front on Wed, mainly across the
western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see above for more on gales off the coast of Colombia.
Outside of the area of gale force winds, fresh to strong winds
prevail elsewhere over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
winds are reaching locally strong over the eastern Caribbean.
Fresh to strong winds are noted over the windward passage.
Moderate winds are over the western Caribbean. Outside of the seas
in the region of gale- force winds, seas are in the 6-8 ft range
over the south central Caribbean, 5-6 ft over the north central
and eastern Caribbean, and 3-6 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
pulsing winds to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia
tonight and Wed night. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail
elsewhere across the central and eastern Caribbean. Fresh trade
winds, along with large trade-wind swell, across the Tropical
Atlantic forecast zones will persist during the forecast period.
Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras
tonight and Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N56W to 24N73W then becomes stationary
to the Straits of Florida. A pre- frontal trough is analyzed from
29N58W to 24N62W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
east of the front N of 26N. Fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are near
the front north of 29N. Fresh easterly wind flow is found over
the waters west of the Bahamas, reaching strong north of
Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of 20N.
South of 20N, fresh to locally strong winds prevail. Elsewhere
north of 20N and west of 45W, seas are in the 4-7 ft range. A
fresh set of northerly swell has propagated into the northern
waters, with seas of 8-12 ft north of 26N between 25W and 45W.
South of 20N, seas are in the 8-10 ft range.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong
nightly into mid- week offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward
Passage. The cold front will stall and dissipate by mid- week.
Mainly fresh winds are noted on either side of the front. Strong S
flow may set up offshore FL by the middle of the week ahead of
the next cold front.

$$
AL
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net