[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212301
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Mar 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning...Strong tradewinds across the south
central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will increase briefly
to gale force within 90 nm of the coast tonight, then diminish
below gale force by sunrise. Seas are expected to build to 10-12
ft during this time.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...A broad area of strong SE return
flow to around 30 kt prevails across the Texas and SW Louisiana
coastal waters late this afternoon and extends well offshore to
near 24N96W. These strong winds with frequent gusts to gale force
are expected to prevail overnight ahead of a cold front expected
to reach the Texas coast Tue afternoon. Seas of 8-11 ft are
expected to persist across these waters overnight before winds
diminish slightly and begin to shift westward ahead of the front.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Liberia near 07N11W
to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 02S22W to 01N42W to
coastal Brazil near 00N46.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05S to 05N between 07W and 27W, and from
01N to 07N between 40W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends across the NW Gulf from 27N91.5W into SE
Texas. Warm SE return flow is feeding into deepening low pressure
across New Mexico late this afternoon, and producing a broad area
of strong SE to S winds to 30 kt across the Texas and SW
Louisiana coastal waters. Frequent gusts to gale force are
expected through this evening and early tonight and a Gale Warning
has been issued for the Texas coastal waters. Seas are 7-10 ft
across the area late this afternoon. Elsewhere, high pressure
centered across the eastern U.S. extends a ridge SW into the
eastern Gulf, behind a stalled front across the Straits of
Florida. The pressure gradient across the basin is yielding
moderate to fresh E to SE winds elsewhere across the Gulf, where
seas are 3-6 ft,except 6-8 ft well offshore of the strong winds
off Texas. Fair skies prevail.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force southerly return
flow will prevail over much of the western and northern Gulf
ahead of the next cold front. That cold front will move off the
Texas coast by Tue afternoon and move through the Gulf through
late this week, with strong southerly flow and active weather
shifting across N central portions Tue and then across the NE Gulf
Tue night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front
on Wed, mainly across the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near gale force wind prevail over the south central
Caribbean. Fresh winds prevail elsewhere over the north central
and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over
the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the
south central Caribbean and 5-7 ft elsewhere over the north
central and eastern Caribbean. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over
the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
mainly fresh trade winds along with large trade-wind swell across
the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the forecast period.
Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central and eastern
Caribbean during this time. Winds along the Colombian coast will
increase to gale force tonight then diminish slightly by sunrise.
Fresh to locally strong winds will also start to pulse Tuesday
night in the Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N62W to 25N73W then becomes stationary
across the Straits of Florida to near 24N84W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 180 nm E of the front to the N of 27N.
Fresh winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail west of the front. Seas of
4-6 ft prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west of 40W. High
pressure of 1025 mb is centered near 34N37W, with ridge extending
to the west and east along 27N. Moderate to fresh E trade winds
prevail across the tropical Atlantic S of 20N, where seas remain
8-10 ft. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high N
of 20N.

For the forecast W of 65W, fresh winds will pulse to strong
nightly into mid-week offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward
Passage. A cold front extends from SE of Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida will move east across the region, then exit the area mid-
week. Strong NW winds will follow this front along 30N. Strong S
flow will set up offshore FL by the middle of the week ahead of
the next cold front.

$$
Stripling
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