[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162225
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across western Africa and terminates
along the coast of Gambia near 13.5N16.5W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N11W to 00N24W to 02S38W. A surface trough is noted west
of the ITCZ from 05N37W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from
05S to 05N and W of 33W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is present S of 04.5N to Brazil between 36W-44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front is moving slowly eastward across the eastern
Gulf, and extends from the Florida Bid Bend near 30N84W to near
24N88W. A surface trough is analyzed W of the front from the
Florida Panhandle coast near 30N86W to 26N91W. Another surface
trough is located in the central Bay of Campeche extending NE to
near 23N90W. No significant convection is associated with these
features. Broken low and middle level clouds prevail E of the
front to the W coast of Florida, where widely scattered weak
showers are offshore between Tampa Bay and Cape Coral. A lone
cluster of moderate convection is seen just N of the Yucatan
Channel near 22.5N88.5W. The rest of the Gulf to the NW is
dominated by a dry stable airmass. Moderate westerly winds prevail
across the N central Gulf behind or weaker winds and seas of 2-5
ft prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will progress
southeastward and reach from south Florida to near the Yucatan
Peninsula today where it will stall and dissipate. Moderate to
fresh return flow will set up across the W Gulf Thu evening ahead
of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf Fri morning. This
front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico
Sat morning, and stall from south Florida to the central Gulf Sun
morning where it will dissipate. Mainly moderate to fresh winds
will prevail behind this front

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends to the
Caribbean Sea, permitting generally tranquil weather conditions. A
few patches of low level moisture ride the trades and can produce
isolated shallow showers. The pressure gradient between the strong
high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America
result in fresh to locally strong trades across the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicate that the strongest winds are occurring off NW Colombia
and southern Hispaniola. Seas of 6-10 ft prevail in the central
and eastern Caribbean due in part to a large region of easterly
Atlantic swell. The highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia.
The rest of the basin experiences moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 2-6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh
to occasionally strong trade winds along with large trade-wind
swell across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones through the
forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will also prevail across
the central Caribbean during this time. Fresh to strong E to SE
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Thu and Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N72W to 28N79W and scattered
moderate convection is seen within 120 nm to the north of trough
axis. The pressure gradient between this trough and a strong high
pressure over the eastern United States result in fresh to strong
SE winds to the north of the trough.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by the subtropical
ridge located near the Azores, promoting fairly tranquil weather
conditions from the coast of Africa to the Bahamas. The pressure
gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the
deep tropics allow for fresh to locally strong easterly winds
between Africa and the Bahamas, mainly S of 23N. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass depict strong trades at the entrance
of the Windward Passage. The easterly fetch result in seas
greater than 8 ft covering most of the eastern and central
Atlantic, and extending to the waters off the eastern Greater
Antilles. The highest seas are found S of 25N and E of 53W. Strong
N-NE winds are occurring in the far NE tropical Atlantic, mainly
off Morocco, and seas in the area are 10-14 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge of high pressure across the area will
support pulsing of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola
through the week. Large easterly tradewind swell will persist S
of 23N and E of 70W through this evening before gradually
subsiding. The ridge will retreat eastward this weekend enabling
a cold front to move off the coast of Florida by Sun morning. The
front will extend from near Bermuda to south Florida late Sun
night.

$$
Stripling
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