[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Mar 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to near 01S40W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 11W
and 20W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 02S to 04N between 30W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to near 23N89W
where it becomes stationary to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the western Gulf with light to gentle
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the north
central Gulf, 1-3 ft over the far eastern and SE Gulf, and 2-4 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will progress southeastward and
reach from south Florida to near Tampico, Mexico today where it
will stall and dissipate. Moderate to fresh return flow will set
up across the W Gulf Thu evening ahead of the next cold front to
enter the NW Gulf Fri morning. This front will reach from the
Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Sat morning, and stall
from south Florida to the central Gulf Sun morning where it will
dissipate. Mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail behind this
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails north of the area. Fresh to strong winds
prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean with gentle to
moderate winds over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-8 ft
range over the central and eastern Caribbean and 2-4 ft over the
western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will
support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds along with large
trade- wind swell across the Tropical Atlantic forecast zones
through the remainder of the week and weekend. Fresh to strong
winds will also prevail across the central Caribbean during this
time. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras Thu and Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front extends from near 31N59W to central
Florida. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted off the coast of
northern Florida. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north
of 23N, while fresh to strong winds prevail south of 23N. Seas
are in the 5-7 ft range west of 70W. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail
elsewhere north of 20N, and 8-10 ft south of 20N.

For the forecast west of 65W, the ridge of high pressure across
the area will support pulsing of fresh to strong winds north of
Hispaniola through the week. Large easterly tradewind swell will
persist S of 23N and E of 70W through Wed evening before gradually
subsiding. The ridge will retreat eastward this weekend enabling
a cold front to move off the coast of Florida by Sun morning. The
front will extend from near Bermuda to south Florida late Sun
night.

$$
AL
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