[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141650
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Mar 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa
near the border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 07N22W
to 03N28.5W. The ITCZ continues from 03N28.5W to the coast of
Brazil near 00.5S48W. Scattered strong convection is observed
from 00N-05N between 00W-09W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N-07N between 10W-15W and south of 01N
between 46W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure over Georgia
west-southwestward across Louisiana to east Texas. This pattern
is supporting mainly fresh easterly winds across the eastern Gulf,
and fresh SE winds across the western Gulf. Seas are 5-6 ft across
most of the basin, except 6-7 ft in the Florida Straits and
Yucatan Channel.

A strong high pressure ridge extending from the western Atlc off
the Carolinas to northern Mexico will dominate the Gulf through
early Tue evening and support fresh winds across the E and SE Gulf
today. Winds and seas will diminish across most of the basin by
this evening. Across the western Gulf, fresh E to SE return flow
will set up in advance of the next cold front. This next front
will enter the far NW Gulf early Tue morning, and reach from the
western Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue
night. Fresh winds accompanying this front will diminish by mid
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated trade wind showers are noted over portions of the
Caribbean to the east of Jamaica and over far western portions, to
the west of 82W. However, no significant areas of stronger
rainshowers are present. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data shows
strong to locally near gale force winds off the coast of Colombia,
where seas are likely 8-10 ft. Strong NE to E winds are also
noted south of Hispaniola. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail
elsewhere over the central and NE Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
trades prevail elsewhere over the basin. Seas are in the 6-8 ft
range across most of the basin, except 5-7 ft in the NW Caribbean.

Strong high pressure across the W Atlc will slide ENE through Wed
to produce increasing trade winds and building seas for the
eastern and central Caribbean through Thu. A cold front forecast
to move across the Gulf of Mexico will stall and dissipate near
the Yucatan Channel Wed evening. Expect fresh to strong E to SE
winds off Honduras by late Thu. Expect fresh to strong with
locally near-gale winds N of Colombia thru Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the western North Atlantic,
crossing 31N at 56W and extending to the north coast of central
Cuba near 22.5N79W. A surface ridge is north of the front,
extending from a 1033 mb high pressure near 34N69W to a 1031 mb
high pressure over Georgia. Recent ASCAT satellite data shows
strong NE winds within 180 nm northwest of the front, including
portions of the NW Bahamas. Seas are 9 to 13 ft in this area. Seas
of 8 ft or greater generally prevail within 240 nm NW of the front
and within 90 nm SE of the front.

Over the central Atlantic, a 1030 mb high pressure near 34N32W
extends a surface ridge west-southwestward to 27.5N60W. Gentle
anticyclonic winds and 5-7 ft seas are near the ridge axis. Over
the far northeast Atlantic, a 1002 mb gale force low pressure is
centered north of the area near 35N10W. A cold front associated
with this system extends from the coast of Western Sahara near
26N15W to 25N21W. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong to near gale
force NNW winds to the north of the front, from the Canary Islands
northward, and east of 24W. Seas of 12 to 22 ft are likely
occurring in this area. Farther south, fresh to strong trade winds
prevail across the tropical Atlantic with seas of 8-11 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, the weakening stationary front
extending from 31N56W to central Cuba will lift northward and
eventually dissipate later this evening. Fresh to strong winds and
rough seas persist along and within 240 nm N of the front. Rough
seas will linger through Tue NE of the Bahamas, then slowly
subside through mid week. Large easterly tradewind swell will
persist S of 23N and E of 70W through late Wed before subsiding.
Looking ahead, deepening low pressure will move across N Florida
and along the SE U.S. coast late Thu and Fri.

$$
Hagen
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