[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Mar 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal
from 12N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ reaches from 01S30W to 00N38W to
02S48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 04N
between 18W and 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches from 1031 mb high pressure off the
Carolina coast across the northern Gulf coast. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N, with 6
to 9 ft combined seas including a component of northerly swell.
High seas are near the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate
easterly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted north of 25N. No
significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident.

For the forecast, the ridge extending from high pressure off the
Carolinas to the coast of Texas will continue to dominate the
Gulf through early Tue evening. This pattern will continue to
support moderate to fresh with locally strong easterly winds and
higher seas across the southern Gulf overnight. Winds and seas
will diminish across the basin through Mon. Fresh E to SE return
flow will set up over the Gulf in advance of the next cold
front. The front will enter the far NW Gulf late Mon night into
early Tue, and reach from the western Florida panhandle to the
eastern Bay of Campeche by late Tue. Fresh winds accompanying
this front will diminish through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line extends from east-central Cuba across Grand Cayman
Island to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted
north of the shear line, with 5 to 8 ft seas. The strongest winds
are in the lee of Cuba. High pressure north of the area off the
Carolinas is also supporting strong winds off Colombia, with
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Fresh NE winds are impacting
the Windward Passage. Seas are 5 to 7 ft south of the shear line.
A few showers and thunderstorms are active along the shear line
over the Gulf of Honduras, but no significant convection is
evident elsewhere.

For the forecast, the stationary front/shearline extending from
east-central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will start to weaken
overnight, then dissipate late Mon afternoon. Afterward, high
pressure building eastward N of the area will cause increasing
trade winds and building seas for the east and central Caribbean
through mid week. Looking ahead, a cold front moving across the
Gulf of Mexico will stall and dissipate near the Yucatan Channel
Wed evening. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds off Honduras by
late Thu. Large trade-wind swell will persist east of the Lesser
Antilles through late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western North Atlantic, crossing
30N at 58W and extending to 28N67W where it becomes a stationary
front and continues to eastern Cuba. 1031 mb high pressure is
analyzed north of the front off the Carolina coast. Fresh to
strong NE winds are evident within 120 nm west of the front, to
include across the central Bahamas. Seas are 8 to 13 ft west of
the front over open waters to about 75W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft west
of 75W to the coast of Florida. Areas of showers are noted along
the front as well. Farther west, a ridge extends from 1034 mb high
pressure near the Azores Islands, it reaches southwest to 29N60W.
The ridge is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade
winds south of 25N with 8 to 10 ft seas in E swell. This
encompasses the entire tropical north Atlantic, from the coast of
Africa to the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong N winds and 8t o 10
ft seas are following a trough moving into the waters from Morocco
to the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stalled front will start to lift
north early Mon morning and dissipate through late Mon. Rough
seas in NW swell are expected to linger through early this week
northeast of the Bahamas, then slowly subside through mid week.
Large E swell will persist east of the Leeward and Windward
Islands through late Thu.

$$
Christensen
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