[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132256
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Mar 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2310 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to
01N36W to 01S48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 07S to 07N and E of 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure over southern Georgia extends a ridge
southward, covering most of the basin, and providing moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds E of 90W and E to SE winds of the same
magnitude over the western half of the gulf. Seas are 3-4 ft N of
27N and 5-8 ft elsewhere with the highest seas being in the Bay
of Campeche and SE gulf.

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to diminish across
the basin through Mon. Fresh E to SE return flow will set up over
the Gulf in advance of the next cold front forecast to enter the
far NW Gulf late Mon night into early Tue. The front will then reach
from the western Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche
by late Tue. Fresh winds accompanying this front will diminish
through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 8 ft are over the NW
Caribbean behind a shear line, remnants of a stationary front,
that extends from eastern Cuba SW to the Gulf of Honduras.
Isolated showers are being reported to the west of this feature
while middle level divergent flow and high moisture over the
north-central Caribbean support a broad area of showers across
Hipaniola and adjacent waters. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong
trades are prevalent in the eastern, central and SW Caribbean,
with the strongest winds occurring offshore NW Colombia where seas
are in the 5-7 ft range.

For the forecast, a shear line extending from eastern Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras will gradually dissipate through Mon. High
pressure building north of the area in the wake of a former front
will allow increased trade winds and building seas over the
eastern and central Caribbean tonight through mid week. Looking
ahead, a second cold front will stall and dissipate across the
Yucatan Channel by late Wed. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds
off Honduras by late Thu. Otherwise, large E swell will persist
east of the Leeward and Windward Islands through late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N65W and
continues southwestward across the eastern Bahamas and into
central Cuba. Cloudiness and light showers are noted within 120
nm W of the frontal boundary. Winds behind the cold front have
dropped below gale force. Recent satellite-derived wind data show
fresh to locally strong N-NE winds, with the strongest winds
occurring in the central Bahamas and offshore central Cuba. Seas
behind the front remain greater than 8 ft, with wave heights of
12-14 ft occurring N of 29N and between 67W and 76W. The rest of
the Atlantic is dominated by a strong ridge over the central
Atlantic that maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the
deep tropics result in fresh to locally strong winds S of 25N and
between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 7-10 ft in this
region. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft are prevalent
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front extends from near
Bermuda to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are
on either side of the front. Winds will diminish through this
afternoon as the front continues to move to the southeast. The
front will stall across the waters E of the Bahamas by this
evening, then will lift north and dissipate through Mon. Rough
seas in NW swell are expected to linger through early this week
northeast of the Bahamas, then slowly subside through mid week.
Large E swell will persist east of the Leeward and Windward
Islands through late Thu.

$$
Ramos
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