[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131637
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1635 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to
01N36W to 01S48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 07S to 07N and E of 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Dry continental air dominates the Gulf of Mexico under a strong
ridge positioned over the Mississippi Valley. This environment fosters
a shield of stratocumulus clouds that fills most of the basin.
Latest scatterometer wind data and surface observations indicate
that fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail E of 90W, with the
strongest winds occurring offshore NW Cuba. Moderate or weaker
anticyclonic winds are present in the rest of the gulf. Seas
greater than 8 ft are found S of 28N in the eastern gulf and S of
25N in the central and western gulf. An altimeter pass from this
morning captured seas up to 10 ft in the Florida Straits. The
highest seas, up to 13 ft, are occurring at the entrance of the
Yucatan Channel and central Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure over the SE of the United States dominates
the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between this system and a
cold front over the Caribbean Sea supports fresh to strong NE
winds and rough seas across much of the eastern and SW Gulf. Winds
and seas will diminish through late today as the high pressure
shifts eastward into the western Atlantic. Fresh E to SE winds
return flow will set up over the Gulf in advance of the next
cold front. This cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf
late Mon night into early Tue, and reach from the western Florida
panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Tue. Fresh winds
accompanying this front will diminish through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening cold front extends from central Cuba to Belize and
only a few shallow showers are noted near the boundary. Recent
scatterometer wind data and surface observations depict fresh to
locally strong NE winds behind the frontal boundary. Seas are 7-13
ft W of the front, with the highest seas occurring in the Yucatan
Channel. Farther east, a weak surface trough is found along 71W
from 14N- 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120
nm ahead and behind the trough. Fresh to locally strong trades are
prevalent in the eastern, central and SW Caribbean, with the
strongest winds occurring offshore NW Colombia. Seas are 4-8 ft in
these areas.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras will stall tonight then dissipate through Mon. High
pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will
allow increased trade winds and building seas over the eastern and
central Caribbean tonight through mid week. Looking ahead, a second
cold front will stall and dissipate across the Yucatan Channel by
late Wed. Expect fresh to strong E to SE winds off Honduras by
late Thu. Large E swell will persist east of the Leeward and
Windward Islands through late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N65W and
continues southwestward across the eastern Bahamas and into central
Cuba. Cloudiness and light showers are noted within 120 nm W of
the frontal boundary. Winds behind the cold front have dropped
below gale force. Recent satellite-derived wind data show fresh
to locally strong N-NE winds, with the strongest winds occurring
in the central Bahamas and offshore central Cuba. Seas behind the
front remain greater than 8 ft, with wave heights of 12-14 ft
occurring N of 29N and between 67W and 76W. The rest of the
Atlantic is dominated by a strong ridge over the central Atlantic
that maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
result in fresh to locally strong winds S of 25N and between
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 7-10 ft in this region.
Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft are prevalent
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front extends from near Bermuda to eastern
Cuba. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are on either side of
the front. Winds will diminish through this afternoon as the
front continues to move to the southeast. The front will stall
across the waters E of the Bahamas by this evening, then will
lift north and dissipate through Mon. Rough seas in NW swell are
expected to linger through early this week northeast of the
Bahamas, then slowly subside through mid week. Large E swell will
persist east of the Leeward and Windward Islands through late
Thu.

$$
DELGADO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net