[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Mar 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A strong NW Gulf of Mexico cold front will support gale-force
winds in the NW Gulf tonight. The gale-force winds will be in
the offshore waters of Mexico, and along the north central Gulf
coast, as the front moves eastward quickly. The sea heights will
build to a range from 12 feet to 16 feet in the northern Gulf,
and to a range from 12 feet to 18 feet in the southwest Gulf on
Sat. The wind speeds will diminish on Sun, with wave the heights
subsiding by early Mon as high pressure in the wake of the front
shifts eastward.

Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A strong cold front will enter the subtropical western Atlantic
Ocean mid-day on Sat. Gale-force SW winds will begin to develop
in the waters north of 30N Sat morning. As the front passes,
winds will shift to the west to northwest, while maintaining
gale-force strength through Sat night. The wave heights will
build to the range of 12-16 ft north of 28N and west of 60W. The
wind speeds will diminish early on Sun, with wave heights
subsiding early on Mon.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 05N10W, to the
Equator along 21W, to 02S26W. The ITCZ continues from 02S26W, to
the coast of Brazil near 05S35W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 100 nm to the north of the monsoon
trough between 15W and 30W, from the Equator to 02N between 22W
and 24W, and from 01N southward between 44W and 46W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from
54W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about the gale-force winds in the western Gulf of Mexico.
Gale-force winds are to the northwest of the cold front.

A cold front passes through SE Louisiana, to the coast of Mexico
near 23N98W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate, and
widely scattered strong, is within 150 nm of the U.S.A. Gulf
coast from 89W eastward.  The sea heights are building to 8
feet. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds, and sea heights reaching
5 feet, are elsewhere in the eastern half of the Gulf.

A Gale Warning is in effect for all the Gulf waters except the
SE part. A strong cold front extends from southeastern Louisiana
to 27N93W and to inland Mexico just north of Tampico. The front
will sweep across the rest of the Gulf by early Sat evening.
Gale-force winds and very rough seas will follow the front
through Sat. High pressure in the wake of the front will then
shift eastward through Mon, allowing for fresh east to southeast
return flow to set up over the Gulf in advance of the next cold
front. This cold front is expected to enter the far NW Gulf late
Mon night, and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to the
eastern Bay of Campeche by late Tue. Fresh winds will
precede and follow this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge is about 480 nm to the north of Hispaniola.
Expect generally moderate to fresh E to SE surface wind flow
around the Atlantic Ocean-based ridge. The sea heights range
from 6 feet to 8 feet between 62W and 73W. The sea heights range
from 3 feet to 4 feet from 18N northward between 73W and 85W.
The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the low level clouds that
are moving through the area, in the trade wind flow, from 16N
southward from 73W eastward, and from 15N northward from 75W
westward.

High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to
strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea tonight.
Then, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail through Mon.
Fresh to locally strong winds will end in the Gulf of Honduras
by Sat morning. A cold front will move across the Yucatan
Channel into the NW Caribbean Sea by early Sat evening, bringing
fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas to the area.
Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will
continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles into
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about the gale-force winds in the western Atlantic Ocean.

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 28N northward from 70W westward. This precipitation is to
the south of an inland SE U.S.A. warm front.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean. A
1028 mb high pressure center is near 30N46W. Fresh to strong NE
winds cover the waters that are from 03N to 28N from the Bahamas
eastward. The sea heights range from 11 feet to 13 feet from 23N
northward between 20W and 40W. The sea heights range from 7 feet
to 9 feet, elsewhere, from 63W eastward. Some areas of sea
heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet cover the remainder of
the Atlantic Ocean from 63W eastward, and elsewhere from 63W
westward.

Fresh to strong southerly winds are over the NE Florida waters
ahead of a strong cold front that is forecast to enter the SW N
Atlantic on Sat morning. Gale conditions are forecast ahead and
behind the front Sat and Sat night. Rough seas are expected Sat
through early next week. Elsewhere, swell will continue to
impact the Lesser Antilles into early next week as this swell
event will be reinforced by another set of swell.

$$
MT/JA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net