[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Mar 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front entering the NW
Gulf of Mexico this evening will support gale-force winds in the
NW Gulf tonight. Gale winds will extend along the Mexican
offshore waters and the north-central Gulf coast as the front
quickly moves eastward. Seas will build 8-15 ft across the
northern Gulf with 10-18 ft in the southwest Gulf on Sat. Winds
will diminish on Sun, with wave heights subsiding by early Mon as
high pressure in the wake of the front shifts eastward.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the sub-
tropical western Atlantic mid-day on Sat. Gale-force SW winds
will begin to develop in the waters north of 30N Sat morning. As
the front passes, winds will shift to the west to northwest,
while maintaining gale strength through Sat night. Wave heights
will build to the range of 12-16 ft north of 28N and west of 60W.
Winds will diminish early on Sun with wave heights subsiding
early on Mon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends into the eastern Atlantic from
the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and stretches southwest to
01S22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to the
coast of Brazil near 05S35W. Numerous heavy showers and tsms are
from 0N to 07N between 10W and 17W where recent scatterometer data
show gale force winds. Similar convection is S of 0N between 40W
and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for more information on a
Gale Warning that applies to almost the entire basin.

A cold front extends from south-central Louisiana to just south of
Brownsville, Texas followed by strong to near gale-force northerly
winds and seas to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are
elsewhere across the eastern half of the gulf with seas to 5 ft.
Heavy showers are over the NE waters being supported by middle
level diffluent flow.

As for the forecast, gale-force winds and very rough seas will
develop behind the front across most of the basin tonight and Sat.
The front will move SE of the area by late Sat. High pressure in
the wake of the front will then shift eastward through Mon,
allowing for fresh east to southeast return flow to set up over
the Gulf in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is
expected to enter the far NW Gulf late Mon night, and reach from
the western Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche by
late Tue. Fresh winds will precede and follow this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure ridging north of the area is maintaining generally
moderate to fresh easterly flow across the basin. Seas range from
4-6 ft, with the exception of higher seas of 6-8 ft between 62W-
73W and lower seas of 3-4 ft north of 18N between 73W-85W.
Outside of isolated showers over the eastern portion of the basin
associated with patches of low-level moisture, dry conditions
prevail elsewhere.

As for the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean
tonight. Then, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail
through Mon. Fresh to locally strong winds will end in the Gulf of
Honduras by Sat morning. A cold front will move across the
Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean by late Sat, bringing fresh
to strong northerly winds and building seas to the area. Otherwise,
fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to
impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles into early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the Gale
Warning for part of the basin.

Broad ridging anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure center near
29N44W controls the wind regime over the Atlantic. This is
supporting moderate to fresh return flow across most of the
offshore waters W of 65W. Locally strong winds are likely N of
Hispaniola and off the NE coast of Florida where scattered showers
and tstms are being supported by diffluent flow. Fresh to locally
strong winds are elsewhere S of 26N.

As for the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong southerly winds
will prevail across the NE Florida waters tonight ahead of a
strong cold front forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic on Sat
morning. Gale conditions are forecast ahead and behind the front
Sat and Sat night. Rough seas are expected Sat through early next
week. Elsewhere, swell will continue to impact the Lesser Antilles
into early next week as this swell event will be reinforced by
another set of swell.

$$
Ramos
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