[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111700
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Mar 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
NW Gulf of Mexico this evening. Gale-force winds will develop in
the NW Gulf tonight and continue across the western Gulf along
the Mexican coast and the north-central Gulf coast as the front
quickly moves eastward. Seas will build 8-15 ft across the
northern Gulf with 10-18 ft in the southwest Gulf on Sat. Winds
will diminish on Sun, with wave heights subsiding by early Mon as
high pressure in the wake of the front shifts eastward.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the sub-
tropical western Atlantic mid-day on Sat. Gale-force SW winds
will begin to develop in the waters north of 30N Sat morning. As
the front passes, winds will shift to the west to northwest,
while maintaining gale strength through Sat night. Wave heights
will build to the range of 12-16 ft north of 28N and west of 60W.
Winds will diminish early on Sun with wave heights subsiding
early on Mon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends into the eastern Atlantic from
the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and stretches southwest to
01S21W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to the
coast of Brazil near 03S38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted south of the monsoon trough to 04S and east
of 14W to the African coast. Another area of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is observed along the ITCZ west of
30W between 01N to 06S.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for more information on a
Gale Warning that applies to just about the entire basin.

As of 15Z, a stationary front near Panama City, FL extends across
the northern Gulf of Mexico to a low pressure center near 27N97W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm ahead of
the boundary, east of 87W to the western FL coast. Marine
conditions are generally favorable throughout the basin, with
gentle to moderate winds. Seas range from 2-4 ft, except for
slighter higher seas of 3-5 ft over the central and eastern Gulf
areas.

As for the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf
this evening bringing gale-force winds and very rough seas across
most of the basin Fri night and Sat. The front will move SE of the
area by late Sat. High pressure in the wake of the front will
then shift eastward through Mon, allowing for fresh east to
southeast return flow to set up over the Gulf in advance of the
next cold front. This cold front is expected to enter the far NW
Gulf late Mon night, and reach from the western Florida panhandle
to the eastern Bay of Campeche by late Tue. Fresh winds will
precede and follow this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure ridging north of the area is maintaining generally
moderate to fresh easterly flow across the basin. Seas range from
4-6 ft, with the exception of higher seas of 6-8 ft between 62W-
73W and lower seas of 3-4 ft north of 18N between 73W-85W.
Outside of isolated showers over the eastern portion of the basin
associated with patches of low-level moisture, dry conditions
prevail.

As for the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean
tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will end in the Gulf of
Honduras by Sat morning. A cold front will move across the Yucatan
Channel into the NW Caribbean Sat evening, bringing fresh to
strong winds and building seas to the area. Otherwise, fresh to
locally strong trades and NE to E swell will continue to impact
the waters east of the Lesser Antilles into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the Gale
Warning for part of the basin.

Broad ridging anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure center near
29N47W controls the wind regime over the Atlantic. The only
notable convection across the basin is observed east of Brazil to
38W and south of 06N. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds
are noted on scatterometer from 05N to 26N, with lighter winds to
the north and south. Rough seas of 8-10 ft are within the region
of higher winds, with seas of 4-7 elsewhere. A recent altimeter
pass captured seas of 10-12 ft north of 27N associated with long
period NW swell that is propagating into the central and eastern
sub- tropical Atlantic from storms north of the area.

As for the forecast west of 65W, fresh to strong southerly winds
will prevail across the NE Florida waters tonight ahead of a
strong cold front forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic on Sat
morning. Gale conditions are forecast ahead and behind the front
Sat and Sat night. Rough seas are expected Sat through early next
week. Elsewhere, swell that has been impacting the offshore waters
N of Puerto Rico will subside today, but continue to impact the
Lesser Antilles into early next week as the swell is reinforced by
another set of swell.

$$

Nepaul
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