[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101700
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Mar 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
NW Gulf of Mexico Fri evening. Gale-force winds will develop in
the NW Gulf on Fri night and continue across the western Gulf
along the Mexico coast and the north-central Gulf coast as the
front quickly moves eastward. Seas will build 8-15 ft across the
northern Gulf with 10 to 18 ft in the southwest Gulf on Sat. Winds
will diminish on Sun with seas subsiding by early Mon. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from coastal
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from
02N17W to 00N30W to the Brazilian coast near 01S47W. Scattered
moderate with isolated strong convection is noted from 05S to
07N between 05W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is also
within 150 nm of the ITCZ between 26W and 47W

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for more information on the gale
warning in the basin.

A weak stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near
30N85W to 26N91W. A line of thunderstorms is about 90 nm ahead
of the boundary stretching from the Florida Big Bend to 25N90W.
A surface trough extends from the tail end of the front near
26N91W to the Bay of Campeche. Moderate N-NE winds prevail
behind the front, while moderate to fresh southerly winds are
ahead of it covering the eastern Gulf. Moderate N-NW winds are
behind the surface trough. Recent buoy observations and
altimeter data note 3 to 5 ft seas over the basin.

For the forecast, the front will linger in the central Gulf
while gradually dissipating today. Moderate winds will prevail
behind the front today. Fresh southerly winds are expected to
develop in the central Gulf on Fri ahead of a strong cold front
expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale force winds and
very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the
western and north-central portion of the Gulf waters Fri night and
Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas will follow
this front across the rest of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure ridging north of the area is maintaining generally
moderate easterly flow across the basin with areas of fresh to
strong winds south of Hispaniola, north of Colombia, and within
the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are moderate throughout the basin
except for north of Colombia and within the Gulf of Honduras,
seas are up to 9 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean
through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will end in the
Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning. A cold front is expected to move
across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean Sat evening,
bringing fresh to strong winds and building seas to the area.
Otherwise, fresh to locally strong trades and NE to E swell will
continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles into
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral, Florida.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass depicted a sharp wind
shift around a trough with fresh NNW winds north of the trough
and fresh S winds south of it. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are also associated with this feature. Otherwise, a 1029 mb high
pressure is centered near 33N42W. Light to gentle anticyclonic
winds are noted N of 26N with 5 to 8 ft seas. Fresh to strong
winds are noted S of 26N between 35W and 65W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft
in this area in generally NE to E swell.

For the forecast west of 65W, fresh southerly winds will prevail
across the NE Florida waters through tonight. Winds will
increase fresh to strong off the NE Florida coast Fri night
ahead of a strong cold front forecast to enter the SW N Atlantic
on Sat. Gale conditions are expected ahead and behind the front
Sat. Rough seas are expected Sat through early next week.
Elsewhere, swell that has been impacting the offshore waters N of
Puerto Rico will subside today but continue to impact the Lesser
Antilles through the weekend.

$$
Mora
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