[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090445
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits Africa along the border of Sierra Leone
and Guinea near 09N14W to 08N17W to  01N26W to 01N32W. The ITCZ
continues from 01N32W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W.
Scattered strong convection is noted from 01N-06N between
08W-23W. Isolated moderate convection is seen south of 03N
between 26W and the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Mobile, Alabama to New Orleans,
Louisiana to 26N94W to 21N96W and into Mexico near 21N99W.
Scattered moderate thunderstorms are noted along and southeast
of the front near coastal areas of southeast Louisiana and
Mississippi from 27N-30.5N between 89W-91.5W. Fresh N winds are
occurring west of the front, over the NW Gulf and west-central
Gulf, where recent buoy data shows seas of 5-6 ft. Recent ASCAT
satellite data shows gentle to moderate southerly winds over the
eastern half of the Gulf, where seas are likely 2-4 ft. Recent
buoy data east of 86W shows seas of 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, the stationary front will transition to a cold
front early this morning, and extend from the Florida Panhandle
to the Bay of Campeche this evening where it will stall again
before gradually dissipating by Thu. Moderate to fresh winds
will be on both sides of the front through Wed night. A strong
cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale
force winds are expected along the Mexico coast Fri night and
Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas will follow
this front across the rest of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The air is relatively dry across the Caribbean basin, although
isolated showers are noted from 17N-21.5N between 72W-80W,
including portions of Haiti, Jamaica and east-central Cuba.
Recent ASCAT data shows fresh trades over most of the eastern
and central Caribbean. Localized fresh to strong winds may be
occurring near the coast of Colombia and in the Windward
Passage. Moderate trades prevail in the western Caribbean,
except for fresh to locally strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of
Honduras. Seas are 5-7 ft across the central Caribbean, except
7-9 ft near the coast of Colombia. Seas are 5-6 ft in the
eastern Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft in the western Caribbean,
except 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean
through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will end south
of the Dominican Republic Thu night, and in the Gulf of Honduras
by Fri night. A cold front is expected to move into the NW
Caribbean Sat evening, bringing fresh to strong winds and
building seas to the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends generally E to W across the subtropical
Atlantic Ocean, from a 1026 mb high pressure near 31N44W. The
ridge continues W to a 1023 mb high pressure near 30N62W, then
extends WSW to south-central Florida at 27.5N. Ridging also
extends ENE from the 1026 mb high from 31N44W to a 1022 mb high
pressure near 34N14W. Gentle anticyclonic winds are near the
ridge axis. However, moderate to fresh southerly winds are west
of 77W, to the east of the Florida. Recent ASCAT satellite data
show mainly fresh trade winds across the tropics, from 05N-24W.
Seas are 7-10 ft from 05N-24N between the coast of Africa and
76W. Seas are 5-7 ft to the north of 25N.

For the forecast west of 65W, moderate to fresh return flow will
prevail through Fri for most of the area. Fresh to strong winds
will develop off the NE Florida offshore waters this morning,
with moderate to fresh winds returning there through Fri. A
strong cold front is expected to push off the Florida coast on
Sat. Strong to near gale force southerly winds will develop off
the Florida coast on Fri night ahead of the front, increasing to
gale force on Sat, N of 29N between 75W and 80W. Strong to near-
gale force northerly winds will quickly follow the front with
building seas affecting most of the area through Sun morning.

$$
Hagen
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