[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080423
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Mar 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near
10N14.5W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 00N26W to
01N33W to 01N43W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is noted south of 04N
between 20W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Mobile, Alabama to Grand Isle,
Louisiana to 25N96W to 23N96W to south of Tampico, Mexico near
22N98W. The portion of the front from Mobile, Alabama to 25N96W
has become stationary, as of 0300 UTC. A recent ASCAT satellite
pass shows strong N to NE winds west of the front off the coasts
of Texas and western Louisiana, with fresh winds off
south-central and SE Louisiana. The winds off the Texas coast
were also confirmed by recent buoy data, along with seas of 9
ft. Strong to near gale force N winds are occurring west of the
front to the coast of Mexico. Scattered moderate showers and
tstorms are occurring along and within 30 nm east of the
northeastern portion of the front, mainly north of 28N and east
of 91.5W. Mainly gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere
over the basin to the east of the front, except for moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds in the Florida Straits and off the
north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, the winds following the front and will
diminish this morning as the boundary stalls from the western
Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. The stationary front
will then linger across the area through midweek and then
gradually dissipate by Thu. A strong cold front is expected to
enter the NW Gulf Fri evening. Gale force winds are possible
along the Mexico coast on Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds
and rough seas are expected to impact most of the basin through
Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mainly fresh easterly winds dominate the central and eastern
Caribbean, according to data from a recent ASCAT satellite pass.
Localized strong winds are noted near the coast of Colombia.
Seas are generally 6-8 ft. Conditions are more favorable in the
NW Caribbean with moderate E to SE winds and 4-5 ft seas.
However, ASCAT shows fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras.
Relatively dry air prevails across the basin, although isolated
showers and tstorms are noted over Haiti and western Cuba.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean
through Thu night. Strong winds will also occur in the Windward
Passage through early this morning and south of the Dominican
Republic through today. In the Gulf of Honduras and Belize
adjacent waters, E to SE winds are expected tonight through Fri
night. A cold front is expected to move into the NW Caribbean
Sat night and bring strong winds and building seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The weather pattern is dominated by a broad ridge along 32N,
centered on a 1030 mb high east of Bermuda near 32N55W. Surface
ridging extends W from the high to central Florida, with mainly
moderate anticyclonic winds north of 26N and west of 65W. The
pressure gradient increases south of 24.5N in the western
Atlantic, with buoys reporting fresh easterly winds and 9 ft
seas east of the southern Bahamas.

In the central Atlantic, the tail end of a cold front extends
from 31N21W to 29N35W where a dissipating stationary front
extends to 29N42.5W. A surface trough extends from 24N54W to
14N56W with isolated showers. Fresh trade winds prevail from
06N-24N between Africa and 65W, where seas are mainly 7-11 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure over the western
Atlantic will shift eastward and gradually weaken the next
couple of days. Fresh easterly winds will continue diminishing
through this morning. Swell will also subside by tonight. Fresh
to strong southerly flow is expected for the NE Florida offshore
waters tonight to Wed night. A strong cold front will push off
the Florida coast on Sat with strong winds expanding in areal
coverage Fri night ahead of the front. Brief gale force winds
are possible Sat to the east of northern Florida, along with
building seas.

$$
Hagen
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