[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Mar 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to the coast of
Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted west of
15W, extending up to 180 nm north and 240 nm south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The majority of the basin is dominated by a moderate to fresh
southeasterly breeze and moderate seas. Fresh easterly winds in
the Florida Straits are generating 6-8 ft seas.

For the forecast, Dense fog and hazy skies over the NW Gulf will
dissipate by noon today as a cold front starts to move into the
NW Gulf this afternoon. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind
the cold front through tonight when the boundary is forecast to
stall from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. The
stationary front will then linger across the area through
midweek and then gradually dissipate by Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh easterly winds dominate the central and eastern
Caribbean. Areas of strong winds are noted in the Windward
Passage, south of Hispaniola and along the coast of Colombia. Seas
are generally 6-8 ft with up to 11 ft observed near Colombia.
Conditions are more favorable with in the NW Caribbean with
moderate easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through
Thu night, in the Windward Passage through tonight, and south of
Hispaniola through Tue. Moderate to fresh trades, along with 8 to
9 ft seas in persistent northeast to east swell, will continue to
impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through the upcoming
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The weather is dominated by a 1031 mb high pressure centered east
of Bermuda near 32N58W. Surface ridging extends WSW from the high
to northern Florida, with mainly moderate anticyclonic winds
north of 25N and west of 65W. The pressure gradient increases
south of 25N in the western Atlantic, with buoys reporting fresh
to strong easterly winds. Rough seas up to 11 ft are observed east
of the Bahamas.

In the central Atlantic, the tail end of a cold front extends
from 31N34W to 29N42W where a shearline continues to 25N58W.
Scatterometer satellite data is reporting moderate to fresh NE
winds behind these features. South of 25N, a large area of
moderate to fresh easterly winds is generating rough seas across
the majority of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 65W, High pressure over the western
Atlantic will shift eastward and gradually weaken the next couple
of days. This will diminish the fresh to strong easterly winds
and easterly swell across the offshore waters to the east of the
Bahamas through Tue morning. Fresh to locally strong southerly
flow is forecast for the NE Florida offshore waters Tue night to
Wed night, resuming and expanding in areal coverage Fri night
ahead of the next cold front.

$$
FLYNN
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