[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Mar 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 06N10W, to 04N16W and 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from
02N17W, to the Equator along 22W, to 01S38W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 04N
southward between 30W and 38W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 07N southward 05W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
A 1023 mb high pressure center is in the northern half of Alabama.

Moderate NE winds are noted off the SE Florida coast in the SE
Gulf and the eastern Bay of Campeche, where seas are 2 to 4 ft.
Light and gentle winds are elsewhere, with sea heights at 3 feet
or less.

North central Gulf of Mexico high pressure will bring gentle to
moderate winds across the basin through Fri. The pressure
gradient is forecast to strengthen in the Gulf during the upcoming
weekend, as the high pressure shifts eastward into the western
Atlantic Ocean. This will bring fresh to strong east winds in the
southeastern Gulf, including in the Straits of Florida, and fresh
southerly return flow in the NW Gulf through Sun night. A cold
front may move into the NW Gulf on Monday, and reach from
southeastern Louisiana to the western Gulf on Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 20N64W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
14N65W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate rainshowers are within 90 nm to the east of
the surface trough and within 150 nm to the west of the surface
trough in the Atlantic Ocean, and within 180 nm on either side of
the trough in the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong winds are off the coast of Colombia in the south
central Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 9
feet. Gentle to moderate trade winds cover the rest of the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate northerly
winds are in the NW corner of the area. The sea heights range from
3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern Caribbean Sea, from 4 feet to 7
feet in the central part of the basin, and the sea heights are 3
feet or less in the NW corner of the area.

Building high pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will
maintain fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds in the
central Caribbean Sea through early next week. Fresh to strong
winds are expected also in the Windward Passage from Friday night
through Monday night. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and
persistent northeast to east swell, will continue to impact the
waters that are to the east of the Lesser Antilles for the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The current cold front passes through 31N55W to 25N62W. A surface
trough is along 24N61W 20N64W 14N65W. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers
are within 150 nm to the east of the cold front, and within 90 nm
to the east of the surface trough and within 150 nm to the west of
the surface trough. Moderate W winds are behind the cold front, and
fresh SW winds are ahead of the front. The sea heights are 8 feet
from 30N northward and from 60W eastward. High pressure, that is
building into the area to the northwest of the front, is allowing
for gentle anticyclonic wind flow in the rest of the western
Atlantic Ocean, with moderate seas.

A surface trough is along 32N76W, to the coast of Florida near
27N80W. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are within 60
nm on either side of the surface trough.

A surface ridge extends from a 1033 mb high pressure center that
is near 32N29W, to 32N35W 29N43W 26N52W.

Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet
to 7 feet, are from 29N northward from 43W eastward. Fresh to
strong easterly winds are from 29N southward from the Lesser
Antilles eastward, with sea heights that range from 8 feet to 11
feet in northeast and east swell. Strong NE winds are in the
Canary Islands, and south of the Islands to 20N between the coast
of Africa and 25W.

The current cold front extends from 31N55W to 25N62W. The front
will stall and weaken in the southeast and south central waters
through Fri night as high pressure builds behind it. Stronger high
pressure then will build into the western Atlantic Ocean during
the upcoming weekend. This will lead to a tight gradient bringing
fresh to strong easterly winds to most of the forecast waters,
and seas building to 11 feet to the east of the Bahamas by
Saturday night. The conditions will improve by early next week,
as the high pressure shifts eastward and gradually weakens. Fresh
southerly flow will develop to the east of northern Florida, from
Sunday into early next week.

$$
MT
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