[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Mar 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Recent scatterometer  data provide
observations of gale force winds in association with a 1014 mb low
pressure located E of Florida near 30N78W. A cold front extends
from the low center to the Straits of Florida. The low pressure
will move NE today, with an area of gale force winds affecting the
Atlantic forecast waters N of 30N and W of 72W through this
evening. Seas of 9 to 13 ft are expected within the area of gale
force winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast
of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues SW to 02N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 02N18W to 01N30W to 01N40W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 03N between
22W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the Straits of Florida and the SE
Gulf. Winds and seas associated with this frontal boundary have
finally diminished over the SW Gulf. Latest observations indicate
NW winds in the 15 to 20 kt there with seas of 6-7 ft. A 1025 mb
high pressure is near the coast of Texas. A recent scatterometer
pass revealed mainly moderate northerly winds across the central
Gulf where seas are 4 to 6 ft. An area of low level clouds with
areas of light rain remain over the SW Gulf while cold air
stratocumulus clouds dominate the N waters. A narrow and broken
band of clouds is over the SE Gulf associated with the front.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf region the
remainder of the work-week resulting in gentle to moderate NE to
E winds across the forecast waters. The pressure gradient is
forecast to strengthen across the Gulf of Mexico during the
upcoming weekend. This will bring fresh E winds over the SE Gulf,
including the Straits of Florida, and fresh southerly return flow
over the NW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The developing low pressure over the western Atlantic has weakened
the pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea. As a result, fresh
trade winds are noted in the south central Caribbean, near the
coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate
trades cover the remainder of the E and central parts of the basin.
In the NW Caribbean, moderate northerly winds are seen across the
Yucatan Channel extending southward along the Yucatan peninsula
to about 19N. Seas are 4-5 ft within these winds. Seas are 4-6 ft
across the east and central Caribbean, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are
observed across the region, more concentrated over the central
Caribbean, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Multilayer clouds, with
possible showers, associated with strong upper-level westerly
winds continue to affect the Windward Islands.

For the forecast, mainly fresh to occasionally strong trade winds
will prevail near the coast of Colombia this week. Moderate to
fresh trades along with persistent NE to E swell will continue to
impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles for the next several
days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A low pressure system located E of Florida near 30N78W is
generating gale force winds and building seas. Please read the
Special Features section above for more details. The attendant
cold front extends from the low center to the Straits of Florida.
A narrow band of clouds is related to the front. Farther E, a
surface trough is analyzed and extends from 29N61W to 22N68W. Some
low level clouds are associated with this feature.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence
of a 1030 mb high pressure located near 31N29W. The pressure gradient
between this system and lower pressures over W Africa supports
near gale-force northerly winds in the Meteo-France marine zone
of Agadir, and also between the Canary Islands. These winds are
generating rough seas of 10-11 ft. Fresh to locally strong trades
are noted per scatterometer data N of the ITCZ to about 22N and E
of 50W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 8-10 ft within
these winds.

For the forecast west of 65W, A cold front extends from a 1014 mb
low pressure located near 30N78W to the Straits of Florida. The
low is producing gale force winds and building seas. This system
will move NE today, with an area of gale force winds affecting the
N waters through this evening. The associated cold front will
continue moving eastward across the region reaching the SE waters
by tonight. High pressure is expected to build across the western
Atlantic in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong easterly flow
may develop by this weekend as another cold front sags southward
into the area.

For the forecast east of 65W, high pressure will remain in control
of the weather pattern across region over the next two or three
days. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressure
over W Africa, and also in the vicinity of the ITCZ will maintain
a belt of fresh to locally strong trade winds across the tropical
Atlantic, mainly E of 50W today. These winds will reach 55W on
Wed.

$$
GR
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