[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300455
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jul 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0444 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W, south of
21N, moving W at 15 kt. No deep convection is associated with
this feature as it is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan
airmass.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W, south of
22N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 62W, south
of 22N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are occurring near
the trough axis, primarily from 13N to 22N. The passage of this
wave will increase the rain chances across the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico tonight and during most of the weekend.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W to 14N25W to 11N32W. The ITCZ extends from
11N32W to 09N37W to 11N49W and continues from 11N51W to 08N61W. No
significant convection is currently observed associated with the
monsoon trough or ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The interaction between an upper level low in the central Gulf of
Mexico and a weak surface trough in the Yucatan Channel result in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SE Gulf,
mainly S of 27N and E of 91W. Elsewhere, the weather conditions
are fairly tranquil. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show
moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 27N and E of 95W, while
light to locally moderate anticyclonic winds are evident in the
rest of the basin. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail S of 27N, while seas of
2-4 ft are present N of 27N. The highest seas are occurring in the
SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the northern
Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas
across most of the Gulf through the middle of next week. The
exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh NE to E winds
will pulse during the evening hours through tonight due to a
trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings
and moves westward overnight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft and a weak surface trough in the Yucatan Channel
allow for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
waters N of 19N and W of 77W. A few showers are also noted in the
eastern Caribbean Sea, associated with the tropical wave described
in the Tropical Waves section. Elsewhere, the weather conditions
are fairly tranquil. The tight pressure gradient associated with
the subtropical ridge south of Bermuda and lower pressures in
northern South America results in fresh to strong easterly trade
winds affecting the south- central Caribbean, with the strongest
winds found offshore NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft.
Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the
north-central and eastern Caribbean. In the rest of the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate seas
are expected across the area through Sun, except for pulsing
fresh to strong winds every evening over the waters off
Colombia, in the Gulf of Venezuela and just south of Hispaniola.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will build over the central
Caribbean Sun night through early next week following a tropical
wave moving across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive 1029 mb subtropical ridge near the Azores remains the
most prominent feature across the tropical Atlantic, maintaining
generally tranquil weather conditions. This is accentuated by a
dry and dusty Saharan airmass continues to travel westward across
the basin, suppressing the development of showers and
thunderstorms. Latest satellite- derived wind data and surface
observations indicate that fresh to locally strong easterly winds
are affecting the waters S of 25N and W of 55W, with the strongest
winds occurring off northern Hispaniola, NE Cuba and the SE
Bahamas, including the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas are
5-8 ft S of 25N and W of 55W, and 3-5N elsewhere W of 55W.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are
noted between 35W and 55W. E of 35W, especially N of 15N, moderate
to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft are prevalent,
with the strongest winds affecting the waters off Morocco and the
passages of the Canary Islands. In the remainder of the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge along 30N will
change little through Mon, then shift slightly south Mon night
through Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of
Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the
late afternoons and during the overnight hours through early next
week.

$$
Delgado
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net