[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290915
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 19W, south of 20N based on satellite
imagery, Hovmoller diagram and wave diagnostic data. The wave is
moving W at 15-20 kt. No deep convection is associated with this
feature as it is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W, south of
20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near
the southern portion of the wave axis, from 04N to 06N between
45W and 47W. The northern portion is surrounded by a dry and
dusty Saharan airmass.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W,
south of 22N and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 17N to 20N between 55W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W to 06N40W to 06N48W. The ITCZ extends from
06N48W to 06N54W to the coast of Guyana near 06N57W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 06N to 08N and between 28W
and 32W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches across the
southwest Caribbean from near Cartagena, Colombia to Limon, Costa
Rica. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted from 12N78W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A sharp upper trough extending from an upper low over Cuba
westward to the northwest Gulf has been supporting clusters of
showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Channel during the late
evening, but these have dissipated over the early morning hours.
Another upper low is centered over north-central Mexico,
supporting a small area of showers and thunderstorms over the
western Gulf near Tampico. Weak ridging across the northern Gulf
is maintaining light to gentle breezes and 1 to 2 ft seas over the
northeast Gulf, with moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas across
the northwest Gulf. Farther south, moderate to fresh E winds and
3 to 5 ft seas are evident.

For the forecast, weak high pressure extending across the
northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas across most of the Gulf through early next week. The
exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh to strong
easterly winds will pulse over the next several nights due to a
trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings
and moves westward overnight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low over central Cuba is supporting several clusters
of showers and thunderstorms from the Windward Passage to near
Grand Cayman to off western Cuba. No significant shower and
thunderstorm activity is observed elsewhere. Weak ridging north of
the area is maintaining mostly moderate to fresh trade winds
across the eastern and central Caribbean, with 4 to 6 ft seas.
Gentle to moderate E winds are evident over the northwest
Caribbean, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. A scatterometer satellite pass
from yesterday evening indicated fresh to strong NE to E winds
reaching the northern approaches to the Windward Passage. The same
scatterometer pass did not show strong winds pulsing off Colombia
at the time of the pass, but subsequent ship observations
indicated 25 to 30 kt pulsing off Colombia during the early
morning.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected across the area through late Sun, except for
pulsing fresh winds every evening over the waters off Colombia.
Looking ahead, winds and seas will build over the south-central
Caribbean early next week following a tropical wave moving across
the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is centered near 29N67W and anchors the subtropical
ridge along 29N between 55W and the coast of northeast Florida. A
surface trough extends from 28N53W to 18N56W, moving west at 10
to 15 kt. A scatterometer satellite pass from earlier in the
evening indicated fresh to strong winds off the northern coast of
Hispaniola, reaching into the northern approaches of the Windward
Passage. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft off Hispaniola in this
area. Elsewhere, the ridge is supporting moderate to fresh E winds
south of 25N and west of 55W with 4 to 6 ft seas in E swell, and
light to gentle breezes with 3 to 5 ft seas north of 25N and west
of 55W. Farther east, 6 to 7 ft seas and moderate to fresh winds
are noted from 18N to 28N between 35W and 50W, on the northern
edge of the tropical wave near 45W. Moderate to occasionally fresh
trade winds and 4 to 6 ft are evident elsewhere south of 31N,
except strong NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas off northwest Africa,
north of 18N. Saharan dust covers much of the eastern Atlantic,
mainly north of 20N and east of 30W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge along 29N
will change little through Mon night, then shift slightly south
Tue and Tue night as a cold front approaches the southeastern U.S.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the
approaches to the Windward Passage in the late afternoons and
during the overnight hours into early next week.

$$
Christensen
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