[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jul 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 38W and S of 23N, moving W at
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
near the southern portion of the wave axis, from 02N to 08.5N
between 36W and 42W. A strong SAL outbreak dominates the north
portion of the wave from 17N to 25N between 38W and 47W.

Another tropical wave has its axis along 52W/53W and S of 21N,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. A surface trough is N of the wave and
extends from 28N51W to 21N53W. Only isolated convection is noted
at this time, likely due to the wave being embedded in a broad Saharan
airmass.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 11N15W then continues to 07N25W to 10N36W to 07N41W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N41W to 08N51W, then resumes W of a
tropical wave near 09N55W to the coast of Venezuela near 09.5N61W.
Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section
above, scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm south of
the ITCZ. Scattered showers are elsewhere near both the Monsoon
Trough and ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough extends to the
border of Costa Rica and Panama to northern Colombia. Scattered
showers and moderate thunderstorms are noted in the SW Caribbean
near the trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends across N Florida and across
the N Gulf waters along 28N. Scattered moderate convection is
noted over the W Gulf from 22N to 26.5N between 90W and 97W,
supported by diffluent flow aloft. Under the influence of the
ridge, mainly gentle to moderate SE winds prevail based on a late
morning scatterometer pass, with seas of 2-4 ft, except 4-5 ft in
the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the broad surface high pressure ridging will
continue over the area allowing for gentle to moderate winds and
gentle seas to prevail through the forecast period. The exception
will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh to strong easterly winds
will pulse each night over the next few days due to the typical
diurnal trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves
westward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough located west of the Lesser Antilles extends from
15N65W to 11N65W. This trough is producing scattered showers and
a few tstorms south of 14N between 64W and 68W. Another surface
trough is noted west of Jamaica, producing a few showers and
tstorms in the Cayman Basin. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are
noted in the NW Caribbean, with seas of 3-5 ft. The southwest,
central, and eastern Caribbean are dominated by gentle to moderate
trades and 5-7 ft seas. The Saharan Air Layer tracking product
from CIMSS and the GOES-16 RGB dust imagery continues to depict
the presence of African dust across much of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected across the area through the rest of the week,
except for pulsing fresh winds every evening over the waters N of
Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will develop across the central
Caribbean this weekend. A surface trough in the eastern Caribbean
near 65W south 16N will move westward across the rest of basin
through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by the Bermuda-Azores High
centered north of the area near 38N30W and extends to N Florida.
Strong to near gale force NE winds are noted across the E Atlantic
waters between the Canary Islands and near the coasts of Western
Sahara and Mauritania, with seas of 7-9 ft. The remainder of the
discussion waters are experiencing gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow. Seas are 4-7 ft west of 55W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere in open
waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure ridge
along 30N will change little through Mon night, then shift
slightly south Tue and Tue night as a cold front approaches the
southeastern U.S. Fresh to strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola
and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the late
afternoons and during the overnight hours into early next week.

$$
Stripling
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net