[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jul 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning
for the AGADIR zone, effective through 28/0000 UTC. N winds will
gust to gale force mainly near the coast. Seas are 7-9 ft in N
swell. Additionally, locally moderate visibility is possible due
to sand haze. For more information, please see the High Seas
Forecast issued by Meteo-France at the website:
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W and S of
27N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near
the southern portion of the wave axis, from 10N to 13N between 29W
and 31W. Fresh NE to E winds are noted near the wave axis per the
latest scatterometer data.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W and S of
23N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A trough axis continues from 23N to
27N along 45W. This wave is embedded in the dry and dusty Saharan
airmass, which is inhibiting significant convection at this time. Fresh
NE to E winds are noted near the wave axis per the latest
scatterometer data.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W to 11N22W to 08N46W. The ITCZ extends from
08N46W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered showers are
noted near both boundaries.

The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough reaches the SW
Caribbean Sea through the border of Costa Rica and Panama to
northern Colombia. Scattered moderater convection is noted within
60 nm of the coast of Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge near Bermuda extends southwestward into the
Gulf waters, maintaining gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds.
Seas of 2-4 ft prevail. Showers and tstorms are noted within 60 nm
of the coast of Mexico in the W Gulf. Additional isolated showers
are noted in the central and NE Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface ridging will continue
to allow for gentle to moderate winds and gentle seas to prevail
through the forecast period. The exception will be the Bay of
Campeche, where fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse each
night over the next few days due to the typical diurnal trough
that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Sharan Air Layer, evident on several Upper Air Soundings
across the Caribbean, continues to provide generally tranquil
conditions across the Caribbean. However, patches of low level
moisture may support some showers today. Trades are moderate in
the eastern and central Caribbean, and gentle in the W Caribbean.
Scatterometer indicates trades are locally fresh in the south-
central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Seas are 4-6 ft in
the eastern, central, and SW Caribbean, diminishing to 2-4 ft in
the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and gentle to moderate
seas are expected across the area through the rest of the week,
briefly increasing to fresh to strong across the south central
Caribbean and N of Honduras tonight. Pulsing fresh to strong winds
will develop across the central Caribbean by this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an East
Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France.

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by the Bermuda-Azores high
centered north of the area. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
prevails over the discussion waters, according to the latest
scatterometer data. The exception is near the aformentioned
tropical waves, where winds are locally fresh. Also, near the
Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh to strong. Seas are 4-6 ft
across the basin, except locally 7 ft north of 20N and east of
35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, an upper-level trough currently
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue enhancing
convection/winds/seas mainly west of 79W through this morning.
Elsewhere, high pressure ridge along 28N will change little
through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse N of
Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage today,
then again this weekend.

$$
Mahoney
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