[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260407
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jul 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0405 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced along 15W, south of 20N, based
on satellite imagery, Hovmoller diagram, potential vorticity and
wave diagnostic data. The wave is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N
and E of 19W.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W, south of 20N,
and moving W at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is associated with
this tropical wave as it is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan
airmass.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W,
south of 21N, extending from eastern Cuba to Colombia and moving
W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
occurring in northern Haiti and surrounding waters and NW
Colombia, including in the offshore waters.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 88-89W, south
of 18N, extending from Belize, across Honduras and El Salvador
into the East Pacific, and moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is seen on the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua,
Honduras and El Salvador.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W to 12N23W to 14N29W to 09N48W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N48W to coast of Suriname near 06N54W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is evident from 04N to 16N and E of
31W. A few showers are also present S of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ to 02N and W of 38W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough enters the SW
Caribbean through the coast of Costa Rica to northern Colombia. A
few weak showers dot the waters near the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure regime dominates the Gulf of Mexico,
supporting mainly light to locally moderate anticyclonic winds.
Seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the Gulf, except for 3-4 ft in the SE
Gulf, especially from offshore northern Yucatan to the Florida
Straits. A surface trough over the NW Bahamas is increasing the
moisture in the SE Gulf and allowing the development of a few
passing showers and isolated thunderstorms. The rest of the basin
enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions.

For the forecast, surface ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico,
allowing for gentle to moderate winds and gentle seas to prevail
through the forecast period. The exception will be the Bay of
Campeche, where fresh to strong northeast to east winds will
pulse each night over the next few days due to the typical
diurnal trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and
moves westward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the NW Bahamas to the lee of Cuba
and interacting with a mid-upper level trough in the NW Caribbean
to produce a few showers, mainly N of 20N. Elsewhere, the weather
conditions are fairly tranquil. The pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge near Bermuda and lower pressures in northern
South America result in fresh to locally strong easterly trade
winds in the central and NE Caribbean, with the strongest winds
occurring offshore southern Hispaniola. Seas in the described
waters are 4-7 ft. In the rest of the Caribbean, light to locally
moderate winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient in the central Caribbean
will support pulsing fresh to strong east winds through Tue, then
moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the forecast period.
Moderate to fresh winds and gentle to moderate seas are expected
elsewhere through the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 28N77W to 20N79W, across the NW
Bahamas and central Cuba. The interaction of this low-level trough
with an upper level trough off NE Florida results in scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 73W. Fresh to strong
easterly wids are found S of 26N and W of 65W, with the strongest
winds occurring between northern Hispaniola and offshore Puerto
Rico, including the entrances of the Mona and Windward Passages
and the SE Bahamas. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere W
of 55W, gentle to locally fresh anticyclonic winds and seas of 3-6
ft prevail.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a strong
subtropical ridge near the Azores, maintaining generally dry
weather conditions. This is accentuated by a dry and dusty
Saharan airmass that is traveling westward across the basin,
suppressing the formation of showers and thunderstorms. Moderate
to occasionally fresh easterly winds are noted from 12N to 28N and
between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in this region are 4-7
ft. Fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds are occurring N of 22N and
E of 28W in the NE Atlantic due to the pressure gradient between
the Azores high and lower pressures in NW Africa. The strongest
winds are found offshore Morocco and in the water passages in the
Canary Islands, as shown by a recent scatterometer satellite pass.
Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridge along 30N will
shift slightly south on Wed, and change little through the
forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the late
afternoons and at nights north of Hispaniola and in the approaches
to the Windward Passage through the weekend. Similar winds are
expected in the Mona Passage tonight and Tue night. A surface
trough that extends from 28N77W to central Cuba will continue
moving west through mid week enhancing convection/winds/seas
across the northern Bahamas and south Florida.

$$
Delgado
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