[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jul 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 20N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen from 07N to 10N between 30W and 36W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from Puerto Rico
southward into Venezuela, and moving west near 15 kt. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over west-central
Venezuela and the northeastern Caribbean Sea, including the
northern Windward Islands.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from 20N southward
across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific, and moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted over the Honduras-Nicaragua border and nearby waters,
and also near the Cayman Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott across the southern Cabo Verde Islands and 12N30W to
10N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
south of the trough from 06N to 12N between the Guinea-
Bissau/Guinea coast and 30W, and farther west from 03N to 09N
between 36W and 47W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over central Panama,
northwestern Colombia and adjacent Caribbean Waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough extends northwestward from the central Gulf
to near Galveston, Texas. Divergent flow near and north of this
feature is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the north-central, northeastern and east-central Gulf.
Otherwise a surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1020 mb
high over the Mississippi-Georgia border to near Tampico, Mexico.
Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are present across the
northern Gulf, while gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and seas
of 2 to 4 ft exist for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will sustain gentle to
moderate winds and gentle seas across the region through the
forecast period. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where
fresh easterly winds will pulse each night over the next few days
due to a diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan Peninsula and
moving west.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for
convection across the basin. A 1026 mb Bermuda/Azores High
continues to channel easterly trades across the entire basin.
Moderate to fresh winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are seen across the
central and eastern basin. Gentle monsoonal winds and 2 to 4 ft
seas are evident for the waters near Panama. Gentle to moderate
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, a relatively tight pressure gradient in the
central Caribbean will support pulsing fresh to strong east winds
through Tue, then moderate to fresh winds through the weekend.
Moderate to fresh winds and gentle to moderate seas are expected
elsewhere through the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough over eastern Cuba and the southeast Bahamas,
along with an upper-level low near the northwest Bahamas are
generating isolated thunderstorms from the Greater Antilles
northward across the Bahamas to off the central Florida coast.
Another upper-level low near 31N29W and associated trough are
producing scattered moderate convection west of the Canary
Islands, and northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands north of 21N
between 29W and 38W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

The Bermuda/Azores High is providing light to gentle winds with 4
to 5 ft seas north of 27N between 36W and the Georgia/northern
Florida coast. Further south, gentle to moderate with locally
fresh NE to E trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted from 11N to
27N between 40W and the Bahamas/Less Antilles. Near the Canary
Islands, gentle to moderate N to NE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are
evident north of 23N between the northwest African coast and
36W/40W. Light to gentle with locally moderate monsoonal and
southerly winds, and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder
of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge related to
the Bermuda/Azores High will sustain pulsing fresh to strong
easterly winds N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward
and Mona Passages at nighttime through the period. The
aforementioned surface trough will reach the central Bahamas this
afternoon and tonight, and South Florida on Tue. An increase in
winds and seas is expected with the trough.

$$

Chan
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