[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231709
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jul 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W, south of
21N and moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 07N to 18N and E of 25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 49W, south of
20N and moving W at 15 knots. No convection is associated with
this wave as it remains embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan
airmass.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 81W, south of 20N
and moving W at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is present
from 17N to the coast of Cuba and between 75W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the border of
Mauritania and Senegal and continues to a 1010 mb low pres near
15N20W to 12N30W to 08N48W. The ITCZ extends from 07N51W to
07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 06N to 13N and between 25W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The expansive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends
southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in primarily
light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft. However,
the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the
tropics support moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds in the SE
Gulf, including the Florida Straits, and the Bay of Campeche. Seas
are 3-4 ft in these waters. A few showers dot the eastern Gulf,
especially off SW Florida and the western Gulf, mainly from 21N
and 24N and W of 95W.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida
into the Gulf region. Under this weather pattern, expect
moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds over the western half of
the Gulf, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds east of 90W.
Otherwise, fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the
early morning hours near and to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula
due to a thermal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the waters off
Yucatan and Belize, mainly W of 85W. Similar convection is present
within 90 nm of the coasts of Costa Rica and western Panama. The
rest of the Caribbean enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. The
broad subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea and lower
pressures in northern South America support fresh to strong
easterly trade winds and seas of 7-10 ft in the south- central and
portions of the SW Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trade
winds are found elsewhere, with the strongest winds off southern
Hispaniola and the lee of Cuba. Seas are 3-6 ft in the NW and
eastern Caribbean, and 4-7 ft in the remainder of the central and
SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area
combined with lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will continue
to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central basin
through Sun, then moderate to fresh winds will prevail through
mid-week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds and slight seas are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras much of the forecast period
while moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are forecast
just E of the Lesser Antilles.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic waters.
Except for a couple of showers off NE Florida, the influence of
the Bermuda-Azores high and a dry airmass associated with Saharan
dust maintain generally tranquil weather conditions outside of the
deep tropics. A weak surface trough is along 58W, from 18N to 26N,
but only shallow patches of moisture are noted near this feature.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft
prevail across these waters, with the highest seas near 23N60W and
25N38W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will continue
to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the forecast
period, leading to fresh to strong easterly winds north of
Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage during the
night hours. A surface trough is forecast to move westward across
the region today, likely reaching the central Bahamas on Mon. This
system could bring some increase in winds and seas.

$$
Delgado
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