[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Canary Islands:

A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and
lower pressure across N Africa is continue to support gust to gale
force NNE winds in the region of the Canary Islands. A recent
altimeter pass show seas of 8 to 9 ft in the area. Model guidance
indicate these conditions will continue through tonight or early
Sat. Please, read the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, at
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 18N with axis near 40W,
moving westward at 5 to 10 knots. Saharan dry air in the wave
environment is limiting the convection to the southern portion of
the wave embedded in the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave extends S of 19N with axis near 74W, moving
westward at 15 knots. Strong wind shear in the central Caribbean
is limiting convection to isolated showers in the Windward
Passage.

A tropical wave extends S of 18N with axis near 87W, moving
westward about 5 to 10 knots. Upper-level diffluent flow and deep
layer moisture support scattered heavy showers and tstms across
the Nicaragua and Honduras offshore waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 13N17W to a 1011 mb low pressure center near 12N32W to
06N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 14N between
14W and 28W, and from 05N to 09N between 29W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Atlantic Bermuda-Azores High continues to extend a ridge SW
across Florida into the the eastern Gulf, which is providing light
to gentle variable winds mainly E of 88W with seas to 2 ft. With
lower pressure along Mexico, a tighter pressure gradient support
gentle to moderate return flow and seas to 3 ft W of 88W.

For the forecast, model guidance indicate the aforementioned
pattern and conditions will continue through early next week,
except for the Yucatan peninsula adjacent waters where a thermal
trough will induce fresh NE to E winds during the late afternoon
and night hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area combined with lower
pressure in the region between Colombia and Panama continue to
support fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft in the south-central
and portions of the SW Caribbean, and fresh trade winds elsewhere
except the NW basin where mainly moderate easterlies are observed.
A tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean, interacting
with the monsoon trough, supports numerous heavy showers and tstms
in the offshore waters between Colombia and Panama. A second
tropical wave moving across Central America support scattered
heavy showers and tstms across the Nicaragua and Honduras offshore
waters.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area extending to the
northern Caribbean will continue to fresh to strong winds and
moderate seas in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean
through Sat night. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected
across the region the remaining forecast period. Otherwise, fresh
to strong NE winds are forecast in the Windward Passage Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features section, for information about
the near-gale to gale force winds that are impacting the waters
that are near the Canary Islands.



$$
Ramos
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