[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jul 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 20N southward,
moving west around 15 kt. A 1012 mb low pressure is associated
with this wave around 10N32W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 20N S between 20W and 36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W, from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 10N to 17N between 50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W, from the Cayman
Islands to Panama, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection has developed in association with this wave along the
coasts of Panama and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near
16N17W to 10N32W to 06N36W. The ITCZ continues from 06N36W to
09N54W and along 10N from 55W to 59W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted within 360 nm S of the monsoon
trough from 11W to 15W. Scattered moderate convection is also
noted with 210 nm on either side of the ITCZ segment from 36W to
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered well E of Bermuda is ridging westward
across the Gulf, leading to dry and good marine conditions. SE
winds are moderate in the western and southern Gulf, gentle in
the north-central Gulf, and light in the NE Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3
ft in generally, with some 4 ft seas in the Florida Straits,
eastern Bay of Campeche, and offshore Texas.

Little change in the marine conditions are expected
into the weekend as a ridge continues to dominate the Gulf
region. Under this weather pattern, gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas will prevail, except near and to the NW of the Yucatan
peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each
night into the early morning hours due to a thermal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The majority of convection in the Caribbean is associated with the
tropical wave described in the Tropical Waves section above, but
convergent trades winds are leading to scattererd moderate
convection in the NW Caribbean, including the the vicinities of
Hispaniola, Cuba, and Jamaica.

The eastern extending of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is
along 9N from Panama to Colombia. Convection in the vicinity of
this trough is primarily associated with the aforementioned
tropical wave.

Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds, and wave heights that range
from 7 feet to 9 feet, are in the south central Caribbean Sea.
The comparatively fastest wind speeds are offshore NW Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. The comparatively highest wave
heights are offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh
trade winds and wave heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet are
elsewhere.

The Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area combined with the
Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong
winds in the south-central Caribbean to the end of the week.
Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are forecast
across the waters near the Lesser Antilles through tonight.
Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each
night through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward. A
surface ridge extends along 30N, in association with a 1026 mb
high pressure center midway between Bermuda and the Azores. This
is leading to gentle wind speeds across most areas N of 20N,
although in the far NW basin, some moderate to locally fresh SW
winds are occurring, on the western periphery of the high's
influence. Then, between 10N and 20N, moderate to fersh trades
dominate. Farther S, winds are mainly gentle. Seas range from 4 to
7 ft, and area highest in the corridor of fresh trades.

The Bermuda- Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic
forecast waters through the weekend. The pressure gradient between
this system and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea
will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong easterly
winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the
approaches to the Windward Passage, nightly into Sat.

$$
Konarik
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